Tuesday, 21 July 2009



I’m currently contemplating my worst day’s P&L since I withdrew my four figure bank in early March. I have an ability to look on the positive side of adversity, so here are the plus points I’ve managed to squeeze from a bad evening :

· I lost half of my bank in a day, without going on tilt. That takes discipline!
· I carry a small bank!
· I carry a small bank because I’ve been funnelling off my previous profits to top up my meagre (in comparison to what I’ve become used to) earnings. With hindsight, a good decision.

So, tonight’s events. After a decent weekend, with more Horse Racing success, at the start of my session this evening I decided to concentrate on the racing again rather than the day’s tennis. My first race lay came in the 5.30 from Ayr, and I immediately picked out a winner. Slightly deflated, I decided to lay the favourite in the next, riskier but my best chance to regain a loss without throwing money at the problem. The favourite won. Unfortunately, the following race involved a 1.3 odds-on favourite. I decided to lay, with the pained expression of a prisoner walking behind a hangman to the gallows. Diamond Laura, the horse in question, duly strolled home by 5 lengths, and in three steps a large chunk of last week’s profit was washed down the river.

I managed to maintain an even perspective, calmed by a check of my P&L which showed that my horse racing experiment remained profitable overall, and I managed to regain a little with modest wins on the following seven races. I then took a break for tea.

I came back and decided to have a look at the tennis from Indianapolis. Having read Scott Ferguson’s earlier blog post, I noticed Kevin Kim had taken the first set against Denis Istomin. My experiences tell me to avoid potentially dodgy matches, but swayed by my earlier calamities, I decided to throw £200 on Kim at 1.12. He broke Istomin twice to lead 3-0 second set, but the odds didn’t move to tempt a green up. Error number one was to not cancel out at that point – in a normal situation, two breaks of serve should cause the odds to collapse. That didn’t happen. I will admit to then compounding my error at this point by switching to read a report on the Test Match. I returned to my screens shortly afterwards, and Istomin was at 1.36! The odds never really recovered enough to make me red up, so I pressed my ‘hope’ button and just watched the match unfold. Whilst the forums were no doubt going crazy, I assumed Kim must have been injured early in the second set. If not, this was seriously dodgy. I watched with bemusement as nearly £1.5 million was matched, as conspiracy theorists and easy-money grabbers were sent into mass panic. It’s slightly bizarre to watch an odds screen and a scoreboard work completely out of step. The market knew Istomin was going to win, even when the scoreboard suggested otherwise. Istomin won. I lost.

I hope Istomin came in to the game with an injury doubt. I hope Kim was genuinely injured during the game. But there have been too many recent stirrings of this type. Maybe I’ll have to stick to the horses!


  1. Not quite sure about your comment of losing half your bank without going on tilt.

    Taking on 1/3 shots smacks to me of desperation and lack of discipline (as does laying the previous favourite based on the theory of the quickest way to recoup your losses) I bet not a lot of thought went into that trade, well apart from the get my money back quick thought!

    Not to worry too much, it happens to us all. I once put £175 on an odds on favourite in a four runner race in an effort to recoup from a previous loss trade. Needless to say it lost (another bad day in the lions den)

    Anyway, it's gone, that was yesterday, so chin up, cause fortunately there's always another day. Just remember not to chase. This is a marathon, not a sprint.

  2. I suppose I should have added 'comparatively', based on previous experience. My first bet lost £60, I then lost a further £30 trying to regain £15, then £20 trying for £60 profit. My 'on tilt' experiences usually ended with a losing bet much higher than my original loss. And yep, today's another day...

  3. Ah the horses always have a funny way of kicking you while youre down, one loss is always followed by another on the poor days. Main thing is the overall picture sure.

    I dont know what to say about stopping the second loss after the first one because I havent worked it out for myself yet!