Another 'Wacky' Tennis Publicity Shot.

No other sport would allow it's star participants to look so stupid, so regularly as Tennis.

I can neither confirm or deny the rumour that Elena Dementieva double-faulted the next point.

Plaudits to Kim Clijsters. Returning from a retirement break of over two years in Cincinatti, she's already taken out Bartoli, Schnyder and Kuznetsova this week. With so many of the top WTA players struggling for consistency, my suggestion in a post a number of months ago that Clijsters could regain the number one spot is not looking particularly far-fetched. And great to see a couple of players - Clijsters and Sam Stosur -who can be relied upon not to disintegrate into a nerve-strangled jelly when approaching the finish line. Recent WTA-watching has made me extremely cautious of placing any bets whatsoever - trader's dream, gambler's nightmare.

Ouch

Battered!

I’m currently contemplating my worst day’s P&L since I withdrew my four figure bank in early March. I have an ability to look on the positive side of adversity, so here are the plus points I’ve managed to squeeze from a bad evening :

· I lost half of my bank in a day, without going on tilt. That takes discipline!
· I carry a small bank!
· I carry a small bank because I’ve been funnelling off my previous profits to top up my meagre (in comparison to what I’ve become used to) earnings. With hindsight, a good decision.

So, tonight’s events. After a decent weekend, with more Horse Racing success, at the start of my session this evening I decided to concentrate on the racing again rather than the day’s tennis. My first race lay came in the 5.30 from Ayr, and I immediately picked out a winner. Slightly deflated, I decided to lay the favourite in the next, riskier but my best chance to regain a loss without throwing money at the problem. The favourite won. Unfortunately, the following race involved a 1.3 odds-on favourite. I decided to lay, with the pained expression of a prisoner walking behind a hangman to the gallows. Diamond Laura, the horse in question, duly strolled home by 5 lengths, and in three steps a large chunk of last week’s profit was washed down the river.

I managed to maintain an even perspective, calmed by a check of my P&L which showed that my horse racing experiment remained profitable overall, and I managed to regain a little with modest wins on the following seven races. I then took a break for tea.

I came back and decided to have a look at the tennis from Indianapolis. Having read Scott Ferguson’s earlier blog post, I noticed Kevin Kim had taken the first set against Denis Istomin. My experiences tell me to avoid potentially dodgy matches, but swayed by my earlier calamities, I decided to throw £200 on Kim at 1.12. He broke Istomin twice to lead 3-0 second set, but the odds didn’t move to tempt a green up. Error number one was to not cancel out at that point – in a normal situation, two breaks of serve should cause the odds to collapse. That didn’t happen. I will admit to then compounding my error at this point by switching to read a report on the Test Match. I returned to my screens shortly afterwards, and Istomin was at 1.36! The odds never really recovered enough to make me red up, so I pressed my ‘hope’ button and just watched the match unfold. Whilst the forums were no doubt going crazy, I assumed Kim must have been injured early in the second set. If not, this was seriously dodgy. I watched with bemusement as nearly £1.5 million was matched, as conspiracy theorists and easy-money grabbers were sent into mass panic. It’s slightly bizarre to watch an odds screen and a scoreboard work completely out of step. The market knew Istomin was going to win, even when the scoreboard suggested otherwise. Istomin won. I lost.

I hope Istomin came in to the game with an injury doubt. I hope Kim was genuinely injured during the game. But there have been too many recent stirrings of this type. Maybe I’ll have to stick to the horses!

Mathieu Montcourt

I thought that this story was a little tucked away and may have been missed by many, but sadly it was announced yesterday that Mathieu Montcourt, the Frenchman ranked 119 by the ATP, died on Monday at the age of 24. It’s always sad to see a death at that premature age, and whilst he may never have gone on to Grand Slam greatness, he was slowly rising up the rankings (and was 72 places higher than the British Number 2! ). I know little of his tennis abilities, but he was certainly a name that anyone trading tennis will have come across. There’s more on the story here, with some worthy words from his fellow players.

Turning a Supertanker

My first losing day for a while, brought upon by a cautious all-red trade taken on Andy Murray when Wawrinka’s excellent backhand started to cause a few problems, and a back of Caroline Wozniaki earlier in the day.

I followed the Safina / Mauresmo game in early evening, and came across a frustrating example of how difficult it is for an instinctive odds-on backer to change his spots. As I have noted on more than one occasion, I believe that the most successful tennis trading technique is to lay at short prices on a variety of ( usually female ) players with flaky temperament, who so often find it difficult to close out games. Despite this, most of my transactions are on favourites pre-match and odds-on trades in play at a point I am confident the player in the driving seat will close out. This no doubt stems from all my early successes being odds-on, and plenty of continuing success backing favourites in the early rounds of ATP and WTA tournaments throughout the year.

Mauresmo ( a known flake ) was a break up in the final set. I had backed Safina pre-match, and as I monitored the odds, I was looking for opportunities to reduce my potential loss. As I looked at the 1.27 on Mauresmo, I instinctively determined that the odds offered no value for trading out my risk. I sat on my hands. Only after 30 seconds or so did it occur to me that I was looking at a fantastic lay opportunity. Before I could play my lay, 0-15 gave 1.38. I piled in at 1.38, too late, missed the trade. 0-30, 1.55. I tried again, missed the trade again, Mauresmo went 0-40, chance gone. So a £4 win that could have easily been £40.

My £2 on Petrova sailed down the river at the hands of Victoria Azarenka. I’ve still not seen Azarenka in action this week, but the current odds suggest she may be a genuine outside bet.
I considered a back of Venus tomorrow, but at 1.14, there’s no worthwhile profit at the sort of stake I’m currently prepared to risk.

Wimbledon Day 2

So there were six British losers today ( see post – Day 1 ). Fortunately, I can’t count, so Elena Baltacha joined Murray in round 2, and Alona Bondarenko continued to cement her place as a trader’s dream. However, having watched the latter stages of the match on the BBC (red button), I thought the Brit played rather well.

Thoughts of the day –

i. The men’s draw went generally to plan. I suppose the biggest surprise was Youzhny, a renowned fighter, losing in three sets to Juan-Carlos Ferrero.

ii. Whilst most of last week’s successes have struggled, Benny Becker sailed through in straight sets, losing nine games. Expect the tiredness to kick in soon!

iii. A low key end at Marat Safin’s Wimbledon career out on Court 18. A pity to lose one of the games’ great characters – there aren’t too many around.

iv. I’m sure there must have been a few nerves in punting circles when Kimiko Date took the first set off Caroline Wozniaki, who’s been hyped up by many over the last couple of days. P.S. - Date’s first Wimbledon appearance ended in defeat to Zena Garrison. The year? 1989!

v. What on earth has happened to Nicole Vaidisova? She couldn’t have hand-picked a much more favourable first round opponent.

vi. Just when we thought we had a consistent British woman! Keothavong somehow managed to lose to Patricia Mayr, career record on grass before today, 0-1.

Won on all today’s bets. Yeah! Czink actually lost to Mauresmo, but I’d arrived home in time to green up at 6-1, 2-5. With a couple of hours trading this evening, day 2 gave me a £59.45 profit. Steady and, er, unspectacular!

I kept an eye on my selections using my I-phone thoughout the day. The Hanescu / Navarro game turned into a long five-setter, ending at 12-10 in the fifth. You have to admire Navarro. Ten sets last week in s’Hertogenbosch, sixty-seven games today. Tough guy. My score-checker of choice – Flashscore.com – doesn’t show fifth set scores after 6-6 (!?), so switched to Livescore.com to follow the climax. Noticed that Livescore had Agnieszka Radwanska due to play Mary Jo Fernandez. I was about to ring Betfair to put my bank on the 14th ranked Pole against a 37 year old American mother of two who retired nine years ago. Sadly, I found she was actually playing Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez, so left my bank intact.

I work nearer to home for the latter part of each week, so should have time for a reasonable in-play trading session. Therefore I’ll probably only have a bet on Djokovic from the lunchtime matches. There seems to be more opportunities for trading than backing in most of the early games. Azarenka, Sugiyama and Robredo look a little short to me.

I’m missing Glastonbury (again) this year. We did agree on our six festivals for the year long ago, but I’m now getting itchy feet as the weekend approaches. Suppose I’ll see plenty of Wimbledon instead. Hmm.

Wimbledon Day One.

A dry first day ( always a priority ). Saw a little of Djokovic this evening between arriving home and going out to the pub for Mrs B’s birthday. Can’t say he gave the impression of a potential champion. The last player I saw doing that much headshaking was the diabolical Ms T. Poutchek at Edgbaston. A bit pissed off with Julien Benneteau – couldn’t he have performed like that when he had my £40 on him against a bleedin’ Argentinian grasscourt novice at Eastbourne last week?
Interesting points of the day –

i. Federer still managed to play ok, despite concentrating on showing off his new Nike kit.

ii. James Blake being done over in straight sets by Seppi – didn’t see that one coming.

iii. So much for warm-up event success – Dancevic, Tanasugarn and Wickmayer all fell in straight sets after reaching finals last week. A lay of Becker at 1.3 tomorrow anyone? Tursunov at 1.4? Possibly the extra day may help them.

iv. No surprise that the Almagro / Monaco match went to 5 sets in 4 hours – two good baseliners slugging it out.

v. Glad to see Daniel Koellerer go out in 5 sets after winning the first two. Ha! (See Scott’s post here ).

vi. Petrova v Sharapova in round three is looking tasty.

vii. Plenty of plucky Brit defeats today, there will probably be six more tomorrow. Let’s hope there aren’t seven!

My 100% tipping record is shattered! Sprem was always a coin toss game, but my emphasis on grasscourt form did for me with Rybarikova ( and Wickmayer ). Wimbledon is friendlier than the other grasscourt events for the baseliners, and Vinci and Vesnina are decent players. So scraped, to use my local dialect, ‘tuppence’ from my day 1 bets ( or ‘bugger all’ to non-northerners ). Had an hour or so of trading this evening, so am currently +£30.52 for the tournament. I should stop now, that’s my most successful Wimbledon ever! Doh.

Day two then, same two batches as last night.

My bets

Tommy Haas @ 1.14
Victor Hanescu @ 1.75
Paul-Henri Mathieu @ 1.42 ( holding breath! )
Radek Stepanek @ 1.38
Kateryna Bondarenko @ 1.50
Melinda Czink @ 4.30

Other Tips

Michael Llodra @ 1.36
Anne Keothavong @ 1.24
Robby Ginepri @ 7.80

Oh, and if you’re going to Wimbledon, avoid Pablo Andujar v Martin Vassallo-Arguello. Yawn.

A Day For Champions

The day must belong to Mr Federer. There now seems to be a general consensus amongst tennis pundits that Roger can be regarded as the finest tennis player of all time. Much attention has been concentrated on him becoming the sixth man to win all four grand slams. I would suggest that his total of fourteen slams in all may be a greater achievement when looked back upon in future decades.

I was ready to write an obituary marking the end of Federer's greatness during his match against Tommy Haas earlier in the week. One of the effects of such dominance in a sport is that opponents are intimidated by reputation, and underperform when pitted against the top player. I was convinced that Haas, having played Federer nine times, and lost on the previous seven occasions, would not have the mental strength to overcome Federer. A loss for the Swiss master would therefore be evidence that the shroud of invincibility had finally been torn away. It was a close call, but six days later his reputation is further enhanced and Wimbledon may give an opportunity for slam number fifteen.

There are mutterings regarding the condition of Rafa's knees at present, and he will have to come into Wimbledon without a warm-up event after pulling out of Queen's. I'm sure that there is further greatness to come from Nadal, but I believe that those knee problems will ensure that he never endangers Roger's 14 slam total.

On a day where the 'Greatest Of All Time' label is being discussed, it seems fitting that the day ended with victories for two probable candidates for such a title, and certainly two men with the ability to intimidate by reputation alone - Tiger Woods and Phil Taylor.

Monthly Review Time

My Week

A decent week, due mainly to my best ever tennis grand slam performance ( don’t get too excited – I’ve lost on every slam to date, harsh lessons learnt ). I actually ended with a disappointing weekend including a red Sunday, due to Mr Soderling’s extraordinary victory at Roland Garros, but I’m sure there are a few people who got burnt today. I recovered a chunk of my liability at 4 match points to Soderling, couldn’t believe I could get 1.06 at 6-2 in the tie break. Maybe some people didn’t have TV pictures. I thought Rafa was second best throughout the game today, an excellent performance by the Swede. Didn’t stop me backing Rafa at 1.5!

My clear strength with tennis betting is in selecting winners. I’m still a novice when it comes to trading. I’ve certainly reached a stage where I can avoid major mishaps, but my natural ‘odds-on’ instincts mean I’m not spotting trading opportunities quickly enough. A good example came in this morning’s Cibulkova v Szavay match. Cibulkova went down to 1.02 at 6-2, 5-2. Both women are on my list of ‘bunny boilers’, so there was no way I was going to back the Slovak. The quality trade was a lay at 1.03 – mentally I expected Cibulkova to falter, but my mindset was still looking for the right time to back rather than the right time to lay, so I sat on my hands. She went out to 1.18 of course, before finishing Szavay off. Frustrating.

My Month

I’m pleased with the month. April was a shocker, so I simply needed a solid and unspectacular few weeks to increase my bank with the minimum of stressful moments. That’s what I achieved. I’ve certainly had more profitable months, but often with too much drama and adrenalin rush. 95% of my profit came from Soccer and Tennis, exactly what I want to achieve.

June may be difficult. My most obvious betting opportunity – the grasscourt tennis season – will occur within working hours. Soccer will be limited to a couple of World Cup qualifiers plus Scandinavian matches. So my aim has to be for another quiet month, steadily building my bank.

I’ll start with a few quid on Mr Federer tomorrow. He’s won his last seven against Tommy Haas, so I don’t think the German will have the mental strength to overcome Roger, particularly with the title now firmly in his sights.

And remember, I have a 100% tennis tipping record on this blog!

Dilemma

Two good evening sessions to start the week, with a profit on bank of over 10% over the two days. I'll settle for that sort of return on a regular basis.

I concentrated on the tennis. I find it better to stick with one sport if there are plenty of opportunities available. My recent record on grand slams is appalling, 'kiddy in sweet shop syndrome' tends to set in. Maybe I'm more suited to these short sessions of a couple of hours.

I was, however, caught by the darkness at Roland Garros. I had backed Christophe Rochus early in the current set using around 10% of my bank. The game was halted with Rochus leading Fabrice Santoro 5-3 fourth set, and 2 sets to 1 up. I'm working in the morning so am unable to trade during the remainder of the match.

So what should I do?

i. Trust my original judgement, particularly as Rochus just has to serve out to win.

ii. Trade out to equalise the green and take a couple of tick profit.

iii. Just cover my potential loss, with a slightly larger green on Rochus than in ii.

Hmm.

Worthy Of Mention

As Rafael Nadal heads towards another dominant year on clay, cementing his position as the finest clay-courter of all time, I notice the announcement of the retirement, at the age of 27, of Guillermo Coria.

It's easy to forget that Nadal has only been at the top of the sport since 2005. In the previous year, Coria, a 21 year-old Argentine, reached number 3 on the ATP rankings off the back of a 31 game winning streak on clay, only ended by Federer in Hamburg. He was, for an 18 month period, 'King Of Clay'.

He went to Roland Garros as favourite to take the 2004 French Open, and reached the final with the loss of just one set. And then came the defining moment of his career, as he took to the court as overwhelming favourite against his unseeded countryman, Gaston Gaudio.

At that time, as a big tennis and soccer fan, I'd been considering internet betting, and had just taken delivery of a new computer. I'd had a look at a few bookmakers sites to see what bets were available, and noted in-play betting as a possible interest. I distinctly remember checking the odds of the final on the Sunday morning. I actually listened to most of the match on Radio 5 Live whilst working on the kitchen table. What transpired put me off in-play betting on tennis for a long time.

Coria dominated the early stages, breaking Gaudio six times in taking a 6-0, 6-3 lead. Gaudio's game improved, and he pressurised Coria into making unforced errors in taking the third set 6-4.

At this point, the match moved into bizarre territory. During the fourth set, at 1-1 Coria called for the trainer, and then as cramp kicked in he was unable to serve properly or move around the court. Gaudio took the set 6-1 in front of a stunned crowd and incredulous BBC commentary team. Coria called the trainer again, and the game looked to be over.

But Gaudio was now in the position of clear favourite, and his nerves kicked in. The fifth set drifted into farce, as both players choked under pressure. Coria's cramping improved, he took a 4-2 lead, nerves took hold again and the cramping came back. Gaudio was simply falling apart. The set reached 4-4. Coria broke to go to 5-4. Another break - 5-5. Another break - 6-5 Coria. 2 match points came and went, the commentary team were apoplectic, 6-6. When Gaudio finally held serve to lead 7-6, the game was up. Coria had gone mentally, and Gaudio crawled over the finish line 8-6 in the fifth.

Neither player ever reached these heights again. Don't doubt the mental damage done to both players during the match.

Coria pulled out of Toronto in the September and required shoulder surgery. He actually had a good 2005, despite hitting a Nadal-shaped brick wall on three occasions, but in the latter part of the season, the service yips took hold. In 2006 he had further physical (shoulder) and mental (yips) problems, and his ranking dropped from 6 to outside the top 100. He played just 2 matches in 2007, and with a 3-11 record in 2008, the recent announcement was no surprise.

His statement upon retirement said he'd lost motivation to compete, rather than had any particular injury issues. I wonder how much of the damage was done at Roland Garros that fateful day.

More Tennis Trivia

This is Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, winner of four grand slam singles titles and the only Spanish woman inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame.

Originally known as Arantxa Sanchez, early in her career she decided to add her mother's maiden name. Subsequent Spanish female tennis players have maintained this tradition.

If I was a tennis commentator, I would be a little pissed off with Aranxta, particularly if I'd been given this morning's doubles match on the main court at Barcelona -

Nunia Llagostera Vives & Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez v Lourdes Dominguez Lino & Arantxa Parra Santonja.

I was actually originally known as Rob The.

Now I'm off to find my lawnmower somewhere in the back of the garage.

A Statistical Query

There are approximately 6.8 billion people living on earth. In Europe and North America combined, there are around 1.07 billion people.

Throughout history, people from many ethnic groups have moved around the world, either looking for work and an improved lifestyle, or fleeing oppression. This has resulted in many multi-cultural societies, particularly in the developed world.

Sport is played throughout the world. Certain sports, including tennis and golf, have higher take-up costs than, say, soccer. Therefore, the players at the top of these sports tend to come from the world's wealthier countries and communities. Despite this, the WTA Rankings top 100 includes women from 37 countries.

So if, hypothetically, there were to be a WTA tour final in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA between protagonists from Odense, Denmark and Montreal, Canada, what are the statistical odds of the following match-up :

Wozniak v Wozniacki. ?

Wanted - Greek Footy Insider

Whilst browsing the Monday football fixtures late last night, I came across a standout set of odds. For the second time this month, the odds didn't stack up to either the recent or whole-season form. In both cases, the home team was Ilisiakos, a team in the bottom three of the Greek second division, and a team with more losses than wins at home. Their opponents in both cases were in mid table with decent recent form. I'm not an odds valuer, but I'd normally expect to see around 2.2 : 3.2 : 3.2 in both games. Actually, Ilisiakos were trading at 1.16 and 1.20 respectively.

In both cases, I laid Ilisiakos ( I'm always the optimist ). In the first game, the home team were two up in 16 minutes. £10 down the drain. Last night, I laid again. Early this morning, I managed to trade out at 1.30 for a £3.00 profit. Once again, the home team scored early, then went 3-0 up before the away side scored twice in the last three minutes for a 3-2 finish.

I'd love to know what I'm missing here. It doesn't look like a 'Weymouth situation'. Maybe they're local rivals and the home teams always win, maybe you have to travel to the ground in a dodgy light plane and are in no fit state to play upon arrival. Obviously plenty of people did know to drive the odds. Any answers?

A zero day for me. I always keep an eye on the teen wild card entries in the secondary tennis tournaments. Today's newcomer at the WTA Ponte Vedra Beach event was an 'Evert Academy' pupil only days past her 14th birthday - Madison Keys. Recent youngsters have failed to match experienced pro's on their baptisms, so I backed Kudryavtseva, despite her frankly crap season to date. Typically, Miss Keys overturned my thought process. Bah. The rest of the evening was then a recovery exercise, with objective achieved near the end of the 7.45 soccer kickoffs, at which point I called it a day.

If Madison Keys wins a Grand Slam, I told you first. Cheques to be sent to Rob's House, Lichfield.

Short And Slightly Smug

The smugness comes from Ms Kuznetsova backing up my last post by blowing up in the second set against Caroline Wozniaki.

I even managed to remember that 'lay at 1.01 to 1.03' tip. Unfortunately, my current small-stakes play has been based around plenty of wins at £2 a time. The comfort at my 'green-up' didn't last long, as the realisation that a little patience could have given me a nice windfall set in.

Practise what you preach.

Bunny Boilers

I note that Kim Clijsters has announced a comeback two years after quitting tennis, and has been discussing on-tour babysitting techniques with Lindsay Davenport. So why come back if family matters have to come first? Simple. Because she's probably had a look at the current form of the top players and realised she could get back at number one in the rankings in a hurry.

Another couple of typical WTA tour days over the weekend in Miami, with defeats for Safina, Jankovic, Ivanovic and Zvonareva, the first three being turned over by some solid middle-ranking ladies, and the latter by the post-injury break fresh Na Li. A quick view of the current top 10 gives me only one name I would currently be happy to back and then leave the room for more than a few minutes - the worthy but hardly legendary Vera Zvonareva. The Williams sisters are top of the tree when focussed and committed, but are never good value to back.

As I have noted in previous posts, the mental fragility of numerous players makes backing winners a hazardous occupation. I'm convinced that the best way to make profits from the WTA game is by :

i. laying overpriced high ranking favourites, and
ii. laying at 1.01 to 1.03 on 'near-certainties' who may well crack before reaching the finish line.

Sadly, this goes against all the instincts I have built up in the last four years, and I therefore find it difficult to make these trades. But I can see that there will be many traders making hay in these situations.

So here is a list, embedded into my heart by personal misfortune, of those ladies I regard as 'mentally fragile'.

i. Elena Dementieva (much improved, but that serve is still suspect).
ii. Nadia Petrova.
iii. Svetlana Kuznetsova.
iv. Amelie Mauresmo.
v. Anna Chakvetadze.
vi. The Bondarenko sisters
vi. Agnes Szavay.
vii. Dominika Cibulkova.
viii. Nicole Vaidisova.

The latter three are at the early stages of their careers, so I wouldn't brand them for life. But in a match-up with Clijsters, I'll take the Belgian every time.

And my list of one on the ATP tour? Marat Safin. ( To anyone who was on Marat in Miami last night, sorry to rub it in ).

You're Fired

A quiet evening yesterday, most live sport having finished by the time I arrived home.

I still had time to have a red day, backing Arevane Rezai at one set up in Miami. She subsequently went all the way to 3 match points at 6-4, 5-4, 40-0 before capitulating woefully against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. My only solace was the knowledge that my loss was due simply to my sometimes lackadaisical approach to low stakes betting. I left the bet open way past a point where I could have greened up, and even went to make a cup of tea at 3 match points, only coming back as Rezai was struggling to hold her next service game. This wouldn't have happened if I was betting seriously, but I have to cut out these beginner's errors if I wish to make any profit, whatever my bank balance.

So at day 20 of my challenge, I have made £238, £14 behind target. I don't fancy my chances of regaining any ground in the next two evenings, but I'll have a good shot at it over the weekend.

I watched the series opener of 'The Apprentice'. I've never followed it closely before, but there had been plenty of promotion in the previous few days. I didn't see much positive in any of the candidates, I suppose this will come across as the series progresses. But why do the participants all need to talk over other people's conversation? Is it that difficult to let someone finish a sentence before having your say? It was bad enough that they constantly interrupted each other, but they wouldn't even let Sir Alan talk.

I've generally found it more useful to listen as well as speak.

My Unsung Heroine

Take a bow, Jill Craybas. The veteran American's wins over the last couple of nights in the WTA Miami qualifying have won me a paltry £3.00. But it's not for this reason I salute Miss Craybas. We have to go back in time to June 2004........

I have never been in a betting shop in my life. I lost the occasional pound during the nineties via alcohol-fuelled evening meetings at Pontefract races, but could never see the fun in potentially losing money, whether at the bookies or in a slot machine. But as a big sports fan, with particular interest in footy and tennis, I was always willing to give an opinion on likely outcomes.

I think the catalyst for my entry into the world of sports betting was the delivery of a new computer, with a huge improvement in my internet performance. I came across the Blue Square website just as Wimbledon began, and decided to throw a few pounds into an account just to have a play. My first bet was typically a loss, the odds-on Michael Llodra going down against Cyril Saulnier ( where he now? ). So Miss Craybas takes the stage as my first ever win, my bet being on her higher ranked opponent, Magdelena Maleeva, who won in straight sets.

I quickly switched to a William Hill account ( better odds ), and in the following weeks and months I found betting on Craybas' opponents to be my own 'free money' system. Without having kept a detailed log of those bets, I'm certain that I made hundreds of pounds backing her misfortune for the rest of the year.

Four and a half years later, we're both still alive and fighting on. I've earned more in knowledge than cash - hopefully the next four years may be payback time. Jill Craybas' continued survival is probably more surprising than mine. Her disastrous second half of 2004 and early part of 2005 saw a slide in the rankings from 64 to 108 at the age of 30. This is generally terminal in the harsh week-on-week rankings chase of the ATP and WTA tours. But now, at 34, Miss Craybas remains in the WTA top 100 and led the United States team in February's Federation Cup tie versus Argentina. With no great weapons on the court, she has relied on experience and determination to maintain her career against the odds.

We need a few journeymen/women to keep the plethoro of talented teens in check. So, I give you, Jill Craybas.

National Pride. Not.

A good end to the Six Nations for England, including a reasonably emphatic win over France a fortnight ago.

You would also like to think that Fabio Capello's boys could currently give the French a severe test, home or away.

But tennis? We're not likely to find out in the near future with GB's recent demise in the Davis Cup qualifiers. And the position of English tennis has lately been hidden behind the young Scottish gentleman's heroics. But, prompted by coach Mark Petchey's calls for the LTA to disband and for a complete reorganisation of tennis in the country, I list for your perusal a section of the ATP rankings for comparison purposes.

8. Gilles Simon
10. Gael Monfils
11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
25. Richard Gasquet
33. Paul-Henri Mathieu
44. Julien Benneteau
45. Jeremy Chardy
49. Florent Serra
50. Fabrice Santoro
53. Marc Gicquel
58. Arnaud Clement
60. Nicholas Devilder
82. Michael Llodra
130. Olivier Patience
132. Nicholas Mahut
135. Adrian Mannarino
136. Mathieu Montcourt
153. Josselin Ouanna
154. Laurent Recouderc
156. Alexandre Sidorenko
167. Edouard Roger-Vasselin
186. Eric Prodon
187. Josh Goodall

Ouch.

Post Update!

Bloody hell, 10 minutes after I published my post and I've spotted another Bollettieri youngster about to make her WTA bow as a wild card at Indian Wells.

So good luck to Ajla Tomljanovic, 15 years and 8 months old.

Her opponent, Angela Haynes, ain't up to much, so I'll keep an eye on this match.

Latest Off The Production Line

Indian Wells tennis at the mo, and spent a little time yesterday following a tight game between the 18 year Ursula Radwanska and the 16 year old Michelle Larcher De Brito. Young, uncomplicated, naive talent, a la Wayne Rooney at 16? Don't you believe it.

A quick look at Miss De Brito's WTA profile gives a few clues - the model pose photoshot, and a residence in Bradenton, Florida. This is the home of the IMG Nick Bolletieri Tennis Academy (NBTA), and the young lady is the latest high-profile graduate introduced to the WTA tour.

The Academy has an excellent reputation for producing successful players, with current star graduates Maria Sharapova and Jelena Jankovic, and a history including Agassi, Sampras, Hingis, Mary Pierce and more. There is a regular conveyor belt of wealthy Europeans happy to send their children to Florida with a dream of superstardom. I have no details of the fees involved, or the success rate, but I'm sure there are plenty of dads who've spent a large six figure sum and never seen their child make even a challenger tour event.

But enrollment certainly improves the odds of success. A quick look through the top 100's shows a stream of young talent - Nishikori, Mathieu, Hantuchova, Lisicki, Vaidisova, Azarenka, Golovin.

The latter has had an injury hit couple of years, and the history of both Sharapova and Jankovic show plenty of injury issues. And here may be the down side of the NBTA system. The player's talent ( and P.R. profile ) is groomed early, and players are introduced to the tour when their skills are ready, rather then when they are physically mature. But the history of talented teens is that many are injury-hit in later years. So keep an eye on Larcher De Brito's upcoming progress, but don't pin your hopes on her being around in ten years time.

If you want an example of how a young talent can be nurtured and controlled to avoid an early burn-out, and allowed the grow without too much media pressure, look closer to home. The teacher - Sir Alex, the pupil - Ryan Giggs.