Wednesday, 4 March 2009

Strategic Thinking

As I noted yesterday, I felt it was important to have a strategy for my part-time betting. The last 12 months or so have hopefully learnt me plenty of useful lessons to use going forward.

Whilst thinking through my strategy, I backed the 'Under 4.5 Goal' market in the Leverkusen/Bayern Munich game at half time (0-0). Just as I was noting the essential requirement to have an exit strategy, goals started flying in rapidly. I noted the need to stay calm at all times, only to find that sheer panic would have been a more useful exit strategy. 3 goals in 4 minutes, and my week was in the red.

Using my ability to find the positive from moments of despair, I noted that my bank now stands close to £1,500. So I have incorporated this fact into my action points:

i. Carry a bank of circa £1,500.
ii. No daily or weekly target. Whilst a target has been necessary previously, it has also been a major cause of bad decision-making.
iii. Every bet should have an exit strategy.
iv. Don't increase either risk level or stake following a loss ( my worst habit ).
v. Soccer and Tennis only!

My aims? To simply make a profit. I'm cautiously confident that using my skills over a few short sessions each week, at times when there is plenty of sport available, should allow me to create a steady profit to top up my new-found 'proper' income.

Many gamblers and traders hope to make a full time living on Betfair. I was forced down the full-time route by circumstances, and have always believed that I am more likely to make money from my 25 years experience in housebuilding than from gambling.

But I've learnt a useful skill. If I'm ever in the same position again, I'd be happy to revert to full-time betting rather than signing-on or taking a low-paid job in a different industry.

So it's time to clear my head, reset my P&L to zero, and start part 3 of my gambling adventure. Wish me luck.

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