Odds-On

After two short and generally uneventful stints of betting today, I was left with a paltry overall £6 profit, and the scowl of a 5 year old made to share his toys with his little sister. The cause of this upset - a loss. Not significant (£47), but frustrating because :-

i. Why the hell was I placing a bet on Rugby Union?
ii. If the odds look too good to be true, they probably are.
iii. I hadn't set myself for the session - no concentration, no escape route etc.
iv. Once again, my tennis profits were simply being used to subsidise losses elsewhere.

What interested me was that my overwhelming sense was hurt from 'the loss'. Whilst I should have been chastising myself over the reasons for the loss, and then falling quickly back into a sensible pattern of betting, for the whole mid-morning session I was aware of how my mentality had moved into that dangerous 'increased risk' zone. Fortunately, work commitments meant I had to shut down the laptop. An easier evening session recovered my day's position, and the 6 hour gap had moved my psychological state back into calmer waters.

From reading numerous blogs, it is clear that most of us struggle with loss situations. The very successful and/or very experienced deal better with the situation, unsurprisingly.

My own problem may stem from the fact that most of my trades are odds-on. I expect to win. If your style is to back horses from say 5/1 and upwards, you will lose on a daily basis, and hope that the winners that you find come regularly enough to offset these losses. So presumably, you will only feel the pain of losing after a long winless stint. My own losses are less frequent, but each one hurts. This may not be a bad thing.

Harry Findlay, our highest-profile pro gamber, has made a name from huge odds-on bets. And an excerpt from one of Harry's press interviews caught my eye -

"There are three things people have to understand ( about short prices) : a) you can get on; b) you get value; c) you get confidence. And no matter what you do in life, confidence is the number one. Say one fellow bets 20-1 shots. After 20 losers, he backs a winner, and he's level. Another fellow's betting evens. After 10 winners and 10 losers, he's level. They've both got the same money, but he's been right 10 times. Who's going to have more confidence? But nobody talks about confidence, the mental instabilities involved in gambling. And that's what it's all about. It's all about how you perform under pressure, how you perform when it all goes wrong."

On reflection, the confidence I gain from winning regularly works for me. Yes, I'll struggle with the losses, but as long as I maintain an element of discipline, I have strategies and skills that will keep me moving forward. It's not for everyone, but finding a trading style that suits your personality is key.

Strategic Thinking

As I noted yesterday, I felt it was important to have a strategy for my part-time betting. The last 12 months or so have hopefully learnt me plenty of useful lessons to use going forward.

Whilst thinking through my strategy, I backed the 'Under 4.5 Goal' market in the Leverkusen/Bayern Munich game at half time (0-0). Just as I was noting the essential requirement to have an exit strategy, goals started flying in rapidly. I noted the need to stay calm at all times, only to find that sheer panic would have been a more useful exit strategy. 3 goals in 4 minutes, and my week was in the red.

Using my ability to find the positive from moments of despair, I noted that my bank now stands close to £1,500. So I have incorporated this fact into my action points:

i. Carry a bank of circa £1,500.
ii. No daily or weekly target. Whilst a target has been necessary previously, it has also been a major cause of bad decision-making.
iii. Every bet should have an exit strategy.
iv. Don't increase either risk level or stake following a loss ( my worst habit ).
v. Soccer and Tennis only!

My aims? To simply make a profit. I'm cautiously confident that using my skills over a few short sessions each week, at times when there is plenty of sport available, should allow me to create a steady profit to top up my new-found 'proper' income.

Many gamblers and traders hope to make a full time living on Betfair. I was forced down the full-time route by circumstances, and have always believed that I am more likely to make money from my 25 years experience in housebuilding than from gambling.

But I've learnt a useful skill. If I'm ever in the same position again, I'd be happy to revert to full-time betting rather than signing-on or taking a low-paid job in a different industry.

So it's time to clear my head, reset my P&L to zero, and start part 3 of my gambling adventure. Wish me luck.