More Tennis Trivia

This is Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, winner of four grand slam singles titles and the only Spanish woman inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame.

Originally known as Arantxa Sanchez, early in her career she decided to add her mother's maiden name. Subsequent Spanish female tennis players have maintained this tradition.

If I was a tennis commentator, I would be a little pissed off with Aranxta, particularly if I'd been given this morning's doubles match on the main court at Barcelona -

Nunia Llagostera Vives & Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez v Lourdes Dominguez Lino & Arantxa Parra Santonja.

I was actually originally known as Rob The.

Now I'm off to find my lawnmower somewhere in the back of the garage.

A Statistical Query

There are approximately 6.8 billion people living on earth. In Europe and North America combined, there are around 1.07 billion people.

Throughout history, people from many ethnic groups have moved around the world, either looking for work and an improved lifestyle, or fleeing oppression. This has resulted in many multi-cultural societies, particularly in the developed world.

Sport is played throughout the world. Certain sports, including tennis and golf, have higher take-up costs than, say, soccer. Therefore, the players at the top of these sports tend to come from the world's wealthier countries and communities. Despite this, the WTA Rankings top 100 includes women from 37 countries.

So if, hypothetically, there were to be a WTA tour final in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA between protagonists from Odense, Denmark and Montreal, Canada, what are the statistical odds of the following match-up :

Wozniak v Wozniacki. ?

Wanted - Greek Footy Insider

Whilst browsing the Monday football fixtures late last night, I came across a standout set of odds. For the second time this month, the odds didn't stack up to either the recent or whole-season form. In both cases, the home team was Ilisiakos, a team in the bottom three of the Greek second division, and a team with more losses than wins at home. Their opponents in both cases were in mid table with decent recent form. I'm not an odds valuer, but I'd normally expect to see around 2.2 : 3.2 : 3.2 in both games. Actually, Ilisiakos were trading at 1.16 and 1.20 respectively.

In both cases, I laid Ilisiakos ( I'm always the optimist ). In the first game, the home team were two up in 16 minutes. £10 down the drain. Last night, I laid again. Early this morning, I managed to trade out at 1.30 for a £3.00 profit. Once again, the home team scored early, then went 3-0 up before the away side scored twice in the last three minutes for a 3-2 finish.

I'd love to know what I'm missing here. It doesn't look like a 'Weymouth situation'. Maybe they're local rivals and the home teams always win, maybe you have to travel to the ground in a dodgy light plane and are in no fit state to play upon arrival. Obviously plenty of people did know to drive the odds. Any answers?

A zero day for me. I always keep an eye on the teen wild card entries in the secondary tennis tournaments. Today's newcomer at the WTA Ponte Vedra Beach event was an 'Evert Academy' pupil only days past her 14th birthday - Madison Keys. Recent youngsters have failed to match experienced pro's on their baptisms, so I backed Kudryavtseva, despite her frankly crap season to date. Typically, Miss Keys overturned my thought process. Bah. The rest of the evening was then a recovery exercise, with objective achieved near the end of the 7.45 soccer kickoffs, at which point I called it a day.

If Madison Keys wins a Grand Slam, I told you first. Cheques to be sent to Rob's House, Lichfield.

Short And Slightly Smug

The smugness comes from Ms Kuznetsova backing up my last post by blowing up in the second set against Caroline Wozniaki.

I even managed to remember that 'lay at 1.01 to 1.03' tip. Unfortunately, my current small-stakes play has been based around plenty of wins at £2 a time. The comfort at my 'green-up' didn't last long, as the realisation that a little patience could have given me a nice windfall set in.

Practise what you preach.

Bunny Boilers

I note that Kim Clijsters has announced a comeback two years after quitting tennis, and has been discussing on-tour babysitting techniques with Lindsay Davenport. So why come back if family matters have to come first? Simple. Because she's probably had a look at the current form of the top players and realised she could get back at number one in the rankings in a hurry.

Another couple of typical WTA tour days over the weekend in Miami, with defeats for Safina, Jankovic, Ivanovic and Zvonareva, the first three being turned over by some solid middle-ranking ladies, and the latter by the post-injury break fresh Na Li. A quick view of the current top 10 gives me only one name I would currently be happy to back and then leave the room for more than a few minutes - the worthy but hardly legendary Vera Zvonareva. The Williams sisters are top of the tree when focussed and committed, but are never good value to back.

As I have noted in previous posts, the mental fragility of numerous players makes backing winners a hazardous occupation. I'm convinced that the best way to make profits from the WTA game is by :

i. laying overpriced high ranking favourites, and
ii. laying at 1.01 to 1.03 on 'near-certainties' who may well crack before reaching the finish line.

Sadly, this goes against all the instincts I have built up in the last four years, and I therefore find it difficult to make these trades. But I can see that there will be many traders making hay in these situations.

So here is a list, embedded into my heart by personal misfortune, of those ladies I regard as 'mentally fragile'.

i. Elena Dementieva (much improved, but that serve is still suspect).
ii. Nadia Petrova.
iii. Svetlana Kuznetsova.
iv. Amelie Mauresmo.
v. Anna Chakvetadze.
vi. The Bondarenko sisters
vi. Agnes Szavay.
vii. Dominika Cibulkova.
viii. Nicole Vaidisova.

The latter three are at the early stages of their careers, so I wouldn't brand them for life. But in a match-up with Clijsters, I'll take the Belgian every time.

And my list of one on the ATP tour? Marat Safin. ( To anyone who was on Marat in Miami last night, sorry to rub it in ).

You're Fired

A quiet evening yesterday, most live sport having finished by the time I arrived home.

I still had time to have a red day, backing Arevane Rezai at one set up in Miami. She subsequently went all the way to 3 match points at 6-4, 5-4, 40-0 before capitulating woefully against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. My only solace was the knowledge that my loss was due simply to my sometimes lackadaisical approach to low stakes betting. I left the bet open way past a point where I could have greened up, and even went to make a cup of tea at 3 match points, only coming back as Rezai was struggling to hold her next service game. This wouldn't have happened if I was betting seriously, but I have to cut out these beginner's errors if I wish to make any profit, whatever my bank balance.

So at day 20 of my challenge, I have made £238, £14 behind target. I don't fancy my chances of regaining any ground in the next two evenings, but I'll have a good shot at it over the weekend.

I watched the series opener of 'The Apprentice'. I've never followed it closely before, but there had been plenty of promotion in the previous few days. I didn't see much positive in any of the candidates, I suppose this will come across as the series progresses. But why do the participants all need to talk over other people's conversation? Is it that difficult to let someone finish a sentence before having your say? It was bad enough that they constantly interrupted each other, but they wouldn't even let Sir Alan talk.

I've generally found it more useful to listen as well as speak.

My Unsung Heroine

Take a bow, Jill Craybas. The veteran American's wins over the last couple of nights in the WTA Miami qualifying have won me a paltry £3.00. But it's not for this reason I salute Miss Craybas. We have to go back in time to June 2004........

I have never been in a betting shop in my life. I lost the occasional pound during the nineties via alcohol-fuelled evening meetings at Pontefract races, but could never see the fun in potentially losing money, whether at the bookies or in a slot machine. But as a big sports fan, with particular interest in footy and tennis, I was always willing to give an opinion on likely outcomes.

I think the catalyst for my entry into the world of sports betting was the delivery of a new computer, with a huge improvement in my internet performance. I came across the Blue Square website just as Wimbledon began, and decided to throw a few pounds into an account just to have a play. My first bet was typically a loss, the odds-on Michael Llodra going down against Cyril Saulnier ( where he now? ). So Miss Craybas takes the stage as my first ever win, my bet being on her higher ranked opponent, Magdelena Maleeva, who won in straight sets.

I quickly switched to a William Hill account ( better odds ), and in the following weeks and months I found betting on Craybas' opponents to be my own 'free money' system. Without having kept a detailed log of those bets, I'm certain that I made hundreds of pounds backing her misfortune for the rest of the year.

Four and a half years later, we're both still alive and fighting on. I've earned more in knowledge than cash - hopefully the next four years may be payback time. Jill Craybas' continued survival is probably more surprising than mine. Her disastrous second half of 2004 and early part of 2005 saw a slide in the rankings from 64 to 108 at the age of 30. This is generally terminal in the harsh week-on-week rankings chase of the ATP and WTA tours. But now, at 34, Miss Craybas remains in the WTA top 100 and led the United States team in February's Federation Cup tie versus Argentina. With no great weapons on the court, she has relied on experience and determination to maintain her career against the odds.

We need a few journeymen/women to keep the plethoro of talented teens in check. So, I give you, Jill Craybas.

Post Update!

Bloody hell, 10 minutes after I published my post and I've spotted another Bollettieri youngster about to make her WTA bow as a wild card at Indian Wells.

So good luck to Ajla Tomljanovic, 15 years and 8 months old.

Her opponent, Angela Haynes, ain't up to much, so I'll keep an eye on this match.

Latest Off The Production Line

Indian Wells tennis at the mo, and spent a little time yesterday following a tight game between the 18 year Ursula Radwanska and the 16 year old Michelle Larcher De Brito. Young, uncomplicated, naive talent, a la Wayne Rooney at 16? Don't you believe it.

A quick look at Miss De Brito's WTA profile gives a few clues - the model pose photoshot, and a residence in Bradenton, Florida. This is the home of the IMG Nick Bolletieri Tennis Academy (NBTA), and the young lady is the latest high-profile graduate introduced to the WTA tour.

The Academy has an excellent reputation for producing successful players, with current star graduates Maria Sharapova and Jelena Jankovic, and a history including Agassi, Sampras, Hingis, Mary Pierce and more. There is a regular conveyor belt of wealthy Europeans happy to send their children to Florida with a dream of superstardom. I have no details of the fees involved, or the success rate, but I'm sure there are plenty of dads who've spent a large six figure sum and never seen their child make even a challenger tour event.

But enrollment certainly improves the odds of success. A quick look through the top 100's shows a stream of young talent - Nishikori, Mathieu, Hantuchova, Lisicki, Vaidisova, Azarenka, Golovin.

The latter has had an injury hit couple of years, and the history of both Sharapova and Jankovic show plenty of injury issues. And here may be the down side of the NBTA system. The player's talent ( and P.R. profile ) is groomed early, and players are introduced to the tour when their skills are ready, rather then when they are physically mature. But the history of talented teens is that many are injury-hit in later years. So keep an eye on Larcher De Brito's upcoming progress, but don't pin your hopes on her being around in ten years time.

If you want an example of how a young talent can be nurtured and controlled to avoid an early burn-out, and allowed the grow without too much media pressure, look closer to home. The teacher - Sir Alex, the pupil - Ryan Giggs.

And Away From Cheltenham.....

The third biggest sporting event this week ( after the Champions League and that other event ) is the WTA/ATP tournament at Indian Wells, California. My research uncovers the fact that in the year 2000, the City of Indian Wells had a population in 3,816. City? There are more people on the industrial estate down the road from me.

Of this huge population, 96.33% were white, and only 0.39% were black (er, that's 15). This may possibly have some bearing on the treatment the Williams sisters received a number of years ago from the crowd at the tournament.

Good on 'em, they subsequently told the organisers to shove it, and haven't been back since. I suppose it's easier to do this with $50 million or so in your back pocket.

It occurs to me that we'd be in trouble if Robbie Savage or Christiano Ronaldo took the same view.