Repeating Patterns

Guess who laid ‘Any other score’ on the Villa / Blackburn game last night? Not my best ever pre-match analysis, although I noted that Alan Shearer’s thoughts were similar to my own on the BBC coverage. I managed to escape with an all-red £13, so no great harm done.

The repeating patterns I refer to are the manner in which my success or failure on particular sports seems to work in circles. My post ten days ago commented on a bad spell on football leaving me with a loss on the month, whilst my most successful sport had been horse racing. Since then, the racing has been horrible and, despite the Villa game, the football’s gone ok. Total impact on the month – football in profit, racing in the red, and an overall monthly P&L sat at a paltry +£86!

The ‘Robin Hood’ technique I’ve mentioned previously is a good example of how I seem to operate. A real problem for me is that I tend to lose confidence in a particular sport after a couple of bad results, and make subtle changes to my betting techniques, whether in staking or type of bet. During one week, my emphasis is on football. The next, racing. The next, tennis. And because I’m not consistent for a long period, I don’t give myself the chance to prove whether a particular staking plan or type of bet will be successful in the long term. Whilst I have learnt huge amounts in the last couple of years, I think the wide range of opportunities opened up to me has actually got in the way of my potential profitability. If I can ever bring myself to knuckle down and make a serious effort to turn my knowledge into profit, ‘consistency’ needs to be put right up there with ‘discipline’ in my betting mantra.

My recent betting has been pretty low key, not helped by my own lack of foresight. I did a spot of arbing last week, resulting in a fiver gain, with the side effect of moving £500 from my Betfair account into Bet365, leaving me with £150 in my Betfair account. Unfortunately, I only had £150 in the old bank account I use for deposits and withdrawals, so I unintentionally limited myself to a £300 bank which I then proceeded to blow over the weekend, courtesy of a few racing lays going astray and a petulant back of Ronnie O’Sullivan with my last £75 on Sunday night. So I left myself with a couple of free days before I could fund my Betfair bank.

The major impact of this was that I missed the Australian Open first round. I had not intended to get heavily involved in an overnight market anyway, and have limited my subsequent bets to a few £20 punts and a little morning betting. I’m in profit, so I’ll continue to take it easy. I got involved in the Montanes / Robert game this morning, and whilst I was always with Montanes, and came out on top, I was certainly aware of those thoughts of flip/flopping which the game brings, and that have given me so much heartache over the years. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that I’m not cut out for major in-play tennis trading – my odds-on lays generally storm straight to 1.01, and I’m instinctively an odds-on backer. But I’m good at finding winners, and if I can use in-play betting to compliment pre-match bets, I’m sure tennis will soon be back at the top of my agenda – it is my favourite sport. I’ve just got to avoid getting sucked into in-play shenanigans. There’s nothing more frustrating than ending up with a £200 loss on a bet that started with a £50 liability, and there’s no sport more likely to ensnare you than tennis.

I noted in a recent post about how I felt relaxed with my betting. I still do, despite the crap P&L. Tennis is the sport with most potential to increase my profits. But also the most potential to give me stress ( and losses ). I’ll keep the kid gloves on for the moment.