No Bet?

Two superb contests in store at the Australian Open this weekend. Whilst having a quick look at the odds it struck me that I, like many others, spend too much time analysing form and prices, trying to find an angle where it doesn’t exist. I’m sure the profitable punter is adept at realising that ‘no bet’ is often a sensible solution. If your convictions are not strong, move on. For me, ‘on the fence’ would be a fair description of my feelings towards the two finals. I’d like to see a Murray / Henin win, but that means opposing two of the most successful champions of all time.

Roger Federer is 1.65, to Murray’s 2.50. The major factor is probably Federer’s grand slam history, but for each argument in his favour, you can call an opposing claim. Federer has won slams – Murray probably wants the slam more. Murray has a good recent head-to-head record – Federer therefore has a revenge motive. Federer had the easier semi – Murray has had an extra day’s rest. I could go on….

The Serena / Justine odds currently sit at 1.92 / 2.06. That probably says it all. The outcome is all about Serena, who’s level of play and temperament fluctuates wildly. In her press conference she noted that a win would put her level with Billie-Jean King in slam titles. A good reason for 100% commitment then. She then followed up with ‘but I don’t really care about that’. No clues on offer there. She’s generally up for slam finals, but would you put your money on it?

Henin is much more predictable - talent/good temperament/graft - but hanging over her is the effort of reaching a final so soon after returning to the sport. Her form has been patchy through the week, but she’s mentally tougher than anyone. Whilst the men’s match will probably be a tight, high quality contest, the women’s match could be 6-1, 6-1. I just don’t know to which player.

I’ll stick to enjoying the sport, with a fiver each on Murray and Henin just as a supportive punt.