Monthly Review Time

My Week

A decent week, due mainly to my best ever tennis grand slam performance ( don’t get too excited – I’ve lost on every slam to date, harsh lessons learnt ). I actually ended with a disappointing weekend including a red Sunday, due to Mr Soderling’s extraordinary victory at Roland Garros, but I’m sure there are a few people who got burnt today. I recovered a chunk of my liability at 4 match points to Soderling, couldn’t believe I could get 1.06 at 6-2 in the tie break. Maybe some people didn’t have TV pictures. I thought Rafa was second best throughout the game today, an excellent performance by the Swede. Didn’t stop me backing Rafa at 1.5!

My clear strength with tennis betting is in selecting winners. I’m still a novice when it comes to trading. I’ve certainly reached a stage where I can avoid major mishaps, but my natural ‘odds-on’ instincts mean I’m not spotting trading opportunities quickly enough. A good example came in this morning’s Cibulkova v Szavay match. Cibulkova went down to 1.02 at 6-2, 5-2. Both women are on my list of ‘bunny boilers’, so there was no way I was going to back the Slovak. The quality trade was a lay at 1.03 – mentally I expected Cibulkova to falter, but my mindset was still looking for the right time to back rather than the right time to lay, so I sat on my hands. She went out to 1.18 of course, before finishing Szavay off. Frustrating.

My Month

I’m pleased with the month. April was a shocker, so I simply needed a solid and unspectacular few weeks to increase my bank with the minimum of stressful moments. That’s what I achieved. I’ve certainly had more profitable months, but often with too much drama and adrenalin rush. 95% of my profit came from Soccer and Tennis, exactly what I want to achieve.

June may be difficult. My most obvious betting opportunity – the grasscourt tennis season – will occur within working hours. Soccer will be limited to a couple of World Cup qualifiers plus Scandinavian matches. So my aim has to be for another quiet month, steadily building my bank.

I’ll start with a few quid on Mr Federer tomorrow. He’s won his last seven against Tommy Haas, so I don’t think the German will have the mental strength to overcome Roger, particularly with the title now firmly in his sights.

And remember, I have a 100% tennis tipping record on this blog!

Falling Down

Further to my recent post regarding Kyle Lafferty's 'simulation', I remembered another classic dive, which I've located after a little searching.

This time it's a manager! The gentleman is one Norbert Meier, then coach of Duisburg, during a Bundesliga game against Koln in 2005. This incident got him the sack, though he's currently back in business as coach of Fortuna Dusseldorf and has brought them up two levels to the second tier Bundesliga 2.

Dilemma

Two good evening sessions to start the week, with a profit on bank of over 10% over the two days. I'll settle for that sort of return on a regular basis.

I concentrated on the tennis. I find it better to stick with one sport if there are plenty of opportunities available. My recent record on grand slams is appalling, 'kiddy in sweet shop syndrome' tends to set in. Maybe I'm more suited to these short sessions of a couple of hours.

I was, however, caught by the darkness at Roland Garros. I had backed Christophe Rochus early in the current set using around 10% of my bank. The game was halted with Rochus leading Fabrice Santoro 5-3 fourth set, and 2 sets to 1 up. I'm working in the morning so am unable to trade during the remainder of the match.

So what should I do?

i. Trust my original judgement, particularly as Rochus just has to serve out to win.

ii. Trade out to equalise the green and take a couple of tick profit.

iii. Just cover my potential loss, with a slightly larger green on Rochus than in ii.

Hmm.

Sunny Sunday

Great end to the week, mainly due to the weather.

A couple of weeks ago, I bought tickets for today’s meeting at Uttoxeter races, despite the clash with the Premier League climax and the opening day of the French Open. A great decision, there’s nothing better than being outside on a day like we’ve had here in the Midlands.

Managed to come home £5 up. Yeah! Also brought home a shiny red forehead.

I decided to have a £5 bet on each of the seven races, and started badly when my choice in the opening race fell at the first hurdle. I took this as a sign that this wasn’t likely to be my day. Things got better with a winner in the third race ( Eleazar at 5/2 ), and I had a second and third in later races. Really chuffed with my win in the bumper ( Get Me Out Of Here at 7/2 ). It’s great to get a win at the end of the meeting, recovering your losses, and it was the one race where I had conviction about my selection.

Despite my limited racing knowledge, I was convinced that Messrs McCoy and O’Neill wouldn’t have made the trip from the Cotswolds to go home empty-handed, and the earlier two O’Neill/McManus horses had failed miserably. So I went with their unraced 5 year old, and McCoy brought it home without fuss.

Had a quiet week on Betfair, having missed today and also missed Tuesday night ( Maximo Park concert in Brum ) and Thursday night ( no sport by the time I got home from work ). More low points than high really, but managed to crawl into a modest profit with Stepanek’s win over Gaudio today ( I was confident enough to leave that bet open when I went out for the day ).
Worst loss – placed a lay on the away side in an Asian Champions League tie between Gamba Osaka and FC Seoul selected from the ‘Wednesday In-Play’ coupon. As the match time arrived, the game disappeared from the in-play coupon. Why do Betfair do that? To make it worse, Gamba led before conceding the FC Seoul winner in injury time. Bollocks.

Lots of fuss this week over Mr Ferguson’s team selection for the game at Hull. It all fell flat, with all four teams in jeopardy losing. I don’t think anyone can complain, if you can’t put up a performance when everything’s on the line, you don’t deserve to succeed.

The 'RTB' Awards

Ah, the British Summer. My thoughts turn towards a season of washed-out international cricket matches and the annual ‘Plucky Brit’ search at Wimbledon. But first I must put aside the football season as it’s final embers glow.

So here I list my players of the season of 2008/9.

You will notice the absence of players from England’s finest team. This year has been very much a team effort for the red United. Van der Sar, Rooney, Giggs, Ronaldo, Evra, Ferdinand and Vidic have all had fine seasons, but I suppose I expected them to. The players below surpassed my expectations.

Stephen Ireland.
You’ve worked hard to cement a regular first place at the club you’ve been with since you were fifteen. And now your club has got 800 trillion to spend on a batch of international mercenaries. How do you respond? By being consistently your team’s outstanding player throughout the season.

Fernando Torres.

Ok, my expectations were high for Torres. But it’s been the consistency of performance that’s surprised me. So many of the millionaire superstar club tend to perform to a big audience, but go missing during the tough mid-winter battles against the middle-rankers. Week in, week out, Torres has come up with the goods. Liverpool came damn close to toppling the champions. There were two major reasons for their success ( see also below! ). It must be fantastic to play for Liverpool, knowing that Torres will score when the chance presents itself.

Stephen Gerard.

Just read the above, but change the word ‘Torres’ to ‘Gerard’. On the basis of likely results when these particular players are missing, Liverpool are a two man team. If they had each played 38 league games this season, we may have had different champions.

Rory Delap.

We have some of the finest defenders in world football playing in the English Premier League. Players who have to cope with a weekly threat from the likes of Torres, Drogba, Kevin Davies, Rooney, Adebayor at el. But could they cope with a bloke who chucks the ball 40 metres with a nice low trajectory? Er, no.

Chris Eagles.

Burnley have had a great season ( which may still get better ). A great run in the League Cup, plus being one step away from the Premiership as I write. The ex-Manchester Utd man may not have been Burnley’s most consistent performer, but he makes my list based on the couple of performances I’ve seen this season. I was reminded of schoolboy football days, when one player was occasionally so much better than the other twenty one that parents would mutter from the sidelines about how unfair it was. Eagles seemed to have been dropped into the game from footballing heaven above, with an easy style and an eye for goal. Certainly one player fit to grace the top flight if Burnley can overcome the final hurdle.

Joey Barton

Only kidding.

The Pillory

'The pillory was a device made of a wooden or metal framework erected on a post, with holes for securing the head and hands, formerly used for punishment by public humiliation and often further physical abuse.'

'The pillory consisted of hinged wooden boards that formed holes through which the head and/or various limbs were inserted; then the boards were locked together to secure the captive. Pillories were set up to hold petty criminals in marketplaces, crossroads, and other public places.'

'As part of the punishment, crowds would throw garbage and other objects at the captive pilloried offender. With hands trapped, he or she could not avoid thrown objects—either mostly harmless items like rotten food, or injurious ones such as heavy stones, where blinding, permanent maiming, or death could be the consequence. Sometimes a criminal's ears would be nailed to the pillory so that any movement of the head to avoid thrown objects would cause further injury.'

This seems a suitable punishment for behavior like this from Rangers' Kyle Lafferty during Saturday's match against Aberdeen. Pathetic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/scotland/8054773.stm

The 43 Year Old Brain

Unique moment today - I forgot about a bet I'd placed! Only spotted it during my end of day P&L check. Placed a lay of Pacos Ferreira in the Portuguese League soccer, before being distracted by something on my other laptop ( more of that later ). I think I'd convinced myself that I'd considered the bet, but not actually placed anything. Fortunately, it went my way.

Yet I can still remember the final sticker that completed my Panini '79 album 30 years ago ( Jimmy Case of Liverpool ). I'm sure a doctor could explain.

Anyway, an unusual day's betting. 25 bets placed, all won. And I only greened up on one transaction, the other 24 went to plan without needing to offset. If I carry on like that, I'll soon be able to afford a BMW X6!

Things were going too well in early evening, so I had a break off to check out a few blogs and other sites. Came across a video with three of my music heroes together on stage, great find. In the unlikely event that anyone is interested in Michael Stipe, Natalie Merchant or Billy Bragg, the video's here. For anyone else, check out my video on the right, it's a good one.