Squaring The Circle

As I have noted in a few posts, I have had difficulty over the past two months finding a trading style to suit my modest bank. To recap for any new visitors to this blog, I spent 8 months as a full-time gambler/trader between June of last year and March, when against expectation I found work on two fronts, allowing me to gain a self-employed status ( building ) and part-time status (betting).

This is probably an opposite situation to many sports betting traders who are currently practising their craft on Betfair, with a dream of turning their skills into a full-time career.

I had become used to a circa £2000 Betfair bank, which became a £383 bank in early March. So here are a few thoughts after 2 months of ‘small-time’ betting.

The Negatives

i. I have found that a number of the strategies I used with a larger bank simply don’t work at lower levels. For example, I had a successful autumn betting on ‘Under 4.5 goals’ in the European football leagues. The majority of these bets would be somewhere around £210 at 1.13, with the aim of greening up at an appropriate point. I found that my successes came from being patient, often waiting until the latter 15 minutes of the game before greening up, rather than clearing out after every early goal. But I have found it difficult to remain patient for 70-odd minutes for a potential £5 gain, and tend to green up (or red up) at the earliest opportunity so I can re-invest my modest bank.

ii. Tennis trading can be very profitable due the market’s general over-reaction to events during games. A simple early hold of serve for a clear favourite can show enough of a swing to make a worthwhile gain if your stakes are high enough. This is a time consuming way of making pennies with smaller stakes. Most of my tennis bets are now made pre-match, looking to trade out at a suitable point.

iii. Both the above are examples of opportunities lost. There is a tendency to replace these with higher risk bets. I regularly get sucked into small bets with no exit route ( say ‘to win’ on a soccer match with the team 1 goal ahead ) on the basis that the potential loss is modest. But I would have never placed the bet at 10 times the stake.

iv. If I’m to use the small stake betting as a practice ground for ‘proper’ betting, then each bet should stand up to scrutiny, whether it is staked at £30 or £300. I’m just not achieving this consistently.

v. I have become too cautious at times, simply because one bad loss drops my bank to a level which restricts my opportunities further.

The Positives

i. There is obviously a pressure to win when mortgage payment is reliant upon Betfair income, leading to overbetting. I have managed to reduce my quantity of bets per session. I’m sure a mantra of ‘wait for the opportunities to come to you’ will aid my future profitability.

ii. I’ve commented at various times on the subject of targets. I’m happy to say I currently have no target, apart from eventually increasing my bank to £2k. The main obstacle to that aim is a tendency to nick the odd £50 from my B/F account to pay for my weakness for Sausage & Egg McMuffins and Fruit Gums ( not considered in my detailed and tightly controlled monthly expenditure budget ).

iii. I managed to come out of April, a month where I made slightly less than zero, being able to analyse my month’s fortunes calmly and learn lessons, rather than being a wound-up ball of frustration. Definitely progress.

Squaring the circle? Developing a part-time betting technique which will transfer successfully to full-time trading if I’m ever put back in the situation I found myself in last summer. I’ll keep plodding away with this thought in mind.

Tip Of The Day

Another of my 'insider' tips for your attention. Today is the final of the Serbia Open in Belgrade. I understand that the local player, one Novak Djokovic, is playing reasonably well and may have more determination to win his home event than his Polish opponent, Lukasz Kubot.

I'll be having £2.00 on a Djokovic win.

Oh, and I've just noticed that the Serbian is 176 places higher on the ATP rankings.

On more domestic matters, I see Ledley King has been arrested outside a London nightclub. Sure I've heard this sort of story before. One day, soccer players will finally learn that having a few drinks in a public bar leaves them wide open to every 'have-a-go' nutter to start a fight in the knowledge that the cops love to arrest footballers, and that there's probably a nice pay day from the Sunday tabloids available afterwards.

I presume that King can only go dancing one week in three, and doesn't listen to any music during the week, to protect his knees.

Worthy Of Mention

As Rafael Nadal heads towards another dominant year on clay, cementing his position as the finest clay-courter of all time, I notice the announcement of the retirement, at the age of 27, of Guillermo Coria.

It's easy to forget that Nadal has only been at the top of the sport since 2005. In the previous year, Coria, a 21 year-old Argentine, reached number 3 on the ATP rankings off the back of a 31 game winning streak on clay, only ended by Federer in Hamburg. He was, for an 18 month period, 'King Of Clay'.

He went to Roland Garros as favourite to take the 2004 French Open, and reached the final with the loss of just one set. And then came the defining moment of his career, as he took to the court as overwhelming favourite against his unseeded countryman, Gaston Gaudio.

At that time, as a big tennis and soccer fan, I'd been considering internet betting, and had just taken delivery of a new computer. I'd had a look at a few bookmakers sites to see what bets were available, and noted in-play betting as a possible interest. I distinctly remember checking the odds of the final on the Sunday morning. I actually listened to most of the match on Radio 5 Live whilst working on the kitchen table. What transpired put me off in-play betting on tennis for a long time.

Coria dominated the early stages, breaking Gaudio six times in taking a 6-0, 6-3 lead. Gaudio's game improved, and he pressurised Coria into making unforced errors in taking the third set 6-4.

At this point, the match moved into bizarre territory. During the fourth set, at 1-1 Coria called for the trainer, and then as cramp kicked in he was unable to serve properly or move around the court. Gaudio took the set 6-1 in front of a stunned crowd and incredulous BBC commentary team. Coria called the trainer again, and the game looked to be over.

But Gaudio was now in the position of clear favourite, and his nerves kicked in. The fifth set drifted into farce, as both players choked under pressure. Coria's cramping improved, he took a 4-2 lead, nerves took hold again and the cramping came back. Gaudio was simply falling apart. The set reached 4-4. Coria broke to go to 5-4. Another break - 5-5. Another break - 6-5 Coria. 2 match points came and went, the commentary team were apoplectic, 6-6. When Gaudio finally held serve to lead 7-6, the game was up. Coria had gone mentally, and Gaudio crawled over the finish line 8-6 in the fifth.

Neither player ever reached these heights again. Don't doubt the mental damage done to both players during the match.

Coria pulled out of Toronto in the September and required shoulder surgery. He actually had a good 2005, despite hitting a Nadal-shaped brick wall on three occasions, but in the latter part of the season, the service yips took hold. In 2006 he had further physical (shoulder) and mental (yips) problems, and his ranking dropped from 6 to outside the top 100. He played just 2 matches in 2007, and with a 3-11 record in 2008, the recent announcement was no surprise.

His statement upon retirement said he'd lost motivation to compete, rather than had any particular injury issues. I wonder how much of the damage was done at Roland Garros that fateful day.

Deja Vu

A highly anticipated night of football, with two British heavyweights clashing in the premier european competition. A full house in the stadium, and millions watching on ITV. The away team bring a one goal lead into the second leg clash, but the home team's players and fans expect a better performance than in the first leg. The pundits are undecided - it may be a classic contest.

The game kicks off with an electric atmosphere around the ground. But quickly, the home fans' anticipation is replaced by a subdued sigh - the blue-shirted away team score! The home side now need 3 goals to win, a huge task for a team whose season's form has been below their best.

The hosts press forward. The crowd try to raise the temperature in support of their side. And then, in an instant, the dream is gone.

The away side's star striker makes it 0-2 on the night, and whilst there is plenty of time on the clock, the tie is effectively dead. The away side grow in confidence and the match turns into a stroll, the home players losing a yard of pace as adrenalin levels evaporate. By the time the home side's continental striker scores, it is merely a consolation, and many fans miss the goal as they head home ahead of the traffic.

The game?

November 1992. European Cup 2nd Round, 2nd Leg. Leeds United 1 (Cantona) Rangers 2 (Hateley, McCoist).

My Weekend - A Photo Blog

As Pete Doherty once said, 1001 words are worth more than a picture. Or something like that. And maybe not Pete. Anyway, to avoid a novel I add illustrations to my post.
























I started my weekend watching the 24 hour news channels. I'm sure it's the incessant barrage of information we now face that creates these exploding news stories. I've only just got over my fear of sherbet caused by the Anthrax scare of 2001. Well, I definitely won't be eating any of those Burger King 'Texican' burgers for a while.























Spent most of Saturday in the big city ( Brum ), ending the day at the newly re-christened 'O2 Academy' ( they don't serve Carling there anymore for some reason ). I'm not usually a fan of resurrected bands from the past, can't see the point of a batch of fifty year olds back on the road just to collect a monthly mortgage-payer. But I never got to see Spear of Destiny in their 1982 - 1990 heyday, so thought it worth a trip. Kirk Brandon still had the voice and the enthusiasm to keep a small and middle-aged audience happy. Certainly the oldest mosh pit I've ever encountered. Good evening.

Sunday afternoon was spent at Catton Park, a ten minute drive from home, for an annual festival of transport event, £5 each entry fee ( good value ), £5 for a bag of pick n'mix sweets ( not so good value ).

Not quite sure why anyone would spend twenty years of their life polishing a Vauxhall Chevette. If anyone's interested in old cars of varying dynamic ability, I've linked to my photos taken yesterday here.



I'm not convinced that Alan Shearer's got what it takes to be a top manager. When asked about Joey Barton's red card, Shearer responded that it was a fair decision and that Joey had let down the club, blah, blah, blah...

Would a top manager give this answer?

Sir Alex - ' I thought the referee bottled it. He was obviously pressurised by the Anfield crowd'

Rafa Benitez - 'Sir Alex is obviously feeling the pressure, he should concentrate on his own player's conduct'.

Arsene Wenger - 'you all know exactly what Arsene would say'.

Neil Warnock - 'terrible refereeing decision, I thought it was a superb challenge'.

Watched the Women's FA Cup Final earlier. The Arsenal side had the most blondes seen in a team since the 1942 German squad.

Thought the quality was poorer than the last couple of years. I have only come across two female players in this country worthy of watching - Kelly Smith and Julie Fleeting - and the Gunners missed them badly. Smith's gone to the USA to play, and Fleeting is currently pregnant. There's a problem Sir Alex has never had to deal with.


Obviously haven't spent much time on Betfair this weekend. Happy to have achieved a modest green, although not for the first time tennis has subsidised losses on other sports.

I'm struggling a little for enthusiasm at the moment. I'm trying to combine small stake betting with a disciplined bank-protecting strategy. I know it's the right way to go as I attempt to build up to a larger bank, but it is frustrating letting opportunities pass by. Would have loved to have thrown my bank on Man Utd and Liverpool this weekend, and twice in the last week I made a couple of pounds on Carla Suarez Navarro when it could have been a couple of hundred. I'll hang in there throughout May, and then hopefully I should have a substantial enough bank to get more enjoyment from my betting.

And finally, spent a little time this evening in the Bloggersphere, and came across this piccy. Impressive, eh?

The art student involved had a great idea, the bottle to ask a scrapyard for a free car, and the painting skills to pull it off.

One Of The Best

The name of Peter Jones came into my thoughts during the Hillsborough memorial events a couple of weeks ago. Thought I'd leave this post a little while, as obviously the events of that day are more important than sports commentary, but Peter Jones' part in that day is worthy of replay. I grew up with his commentaries and reports, and hearing his voice still reminds me of childhood, of listening to Sports Report on the way home from Elland Road. Check out his commentaries of FA Cup Finals in the seventies and eighties - masterpieces.

I was listening to his fateful final commentary the following March, confused as to why expert pundit Dan Topolsky called the finish of the Boat Race, when Jonesy was the lead commentator. It felt like a friend had died when I heard the news the next day.

So this is his epitaph. He commentated at Heysel, and was then confronted by Hillsborough. The dignity of this piece summed up the professionalism and humanity of the man.

Gone Without Anyone Noticing

So the M10 is no more. From today onwards, this rather pointless leg of Britain's infrastructure is downgraded to the more anonymous 'A414'. I know how this feels, being currently 'that bloke who does a couple of days for us' rather than a previous exalted title.

This information quickly brought me to a list of items which have gone from our lives without the hurrah given to such as Top of the Pops or Carol Vorderman's stint on Countdown. I am a list person. I think it's a male thing, the creation of a mental 'top 5' of everything whilst tolerating the daily commute. God, I still make my annual best of year compilation cd every year, at 43! Sure I'll grow up soon.

The list :

Pagers. We're all used to the fact that you can no longer escape from friends and colleagues. The mobile is expected to be on at all times. It was not always this way.
One of my favourite jobs in the late '80's was a weekly drive around a number of outlying building sites dotted across East Yorkshire. Particularly in summer, a great day out. Windows down ( pre air-con ), bunch of the latest indie cassettes in hand. Bliss. Then I was given 'The Pager'. I was taught how to use this - hear bleep, immediately accerate car to 'Life on Mars' car chase speed, find phone box, ring office hurriedly, be told that the Sales Manager would like you to pick up a cushion. Definitely in my room 101.

Music on Breakfast Radio Shows. There have been 'personality' DJ's around for a while. I quite enjoyed Chris Evans' Radio 1 stint. But I'm sure he used to play some music. I regularly scan across my preset channels during my morning commute, and everybody's always talking - generally about themselves. I blame Steve Wright and his soddin' possee. Now every show has four or five people in the studio chatting away inanely.

TV Sports Presenters. Yes, I know they still exist, but nowadays the qualification for the big jobs, particularly on the BBC, seems to be a trophy cabinet of sporting success rather than any presenting ability. I'm sure John Inverdale wouldn't have been sidelined to 'World's Strongest Man' a decade ago. Des Lynam, in his prime, had an authority and respect for both the sport and the viewer. I don't see this in most of our current crop.

Snooker Personalities. I've not watched any snooker this week, but I guess that, like many sports, the standard is higher than ever. Professionalism has spread across sport, and sadly the time spent honing skills and technique no longer seems to allow room for offbeat characters to flourish. Snooker has always been TV friendly, ever since colour sets became prevalent in the seventies. And it's success was personality led, starting with Fred Davis, through to Ray Reardon and Alex Higgins, taking in John Virgo's crap impressions and reaching a crescendo with the 'Snooker Loopy' era. The anti-personality of that time, Steve Davis, has actually now become the 'interesting' one. I didn't see that coming.

I could go on, but the post may just turn into the reminiscenses of a forty-something.