Dumping The Horses

It’s time for a rethink on my Betfair antics, as my P&L deteriorates on a monthly basis. My June betting was limited, but too many times I was ‘unlucky’. This is betting’s most dangerous word. It tends to hide the fact that you have put yourself in situations where you are left at the mercy of a single kick of the ball, or a couple of points in a tennis match. My World Cup P&L is in the red, simply because of the last kick of a game – Slovakia’s penalty against Holland. But I had plenty of opportunity to reduce my risk, so it’s a mistake, not unlucky. Similarly, my Wimbledon P&L is also in the red, because a player went from match point on serve, with a break in the final set, to lose 9-7. But, delving deeper, I backed a mid-ranking female player to serve out in a pressure situation – big mistake.

So I’ve packed in my horse racing lays.

Er, haven’t I just illustrated football and tennis losses? Yes, but a bit of analysis shows the following :

•My overall profitability has reduced since I started regularly betting on horse racing.
•I’ve made sod all on horse racing, and have struggled to find the expected improvement as I’ve gained experience in the markets.
•I’m much more susceptible to chasing losses with racing – there’s always another ‘opportunity’ available to recover ( or make things worse ).

The major reason for the change is that I’m simply less effective than I was a year ago. I seem to be much more impatient, looking for immediate opportunities, when historically I’ve been able to succeed when letting opportunities arise. It’s noticeable that given the option of trading a couple of football games, I’ll take on the alternative of a batch of evening races. The racing offers more ‘potential’ profit, and the results are immediate. Yet my P&L says that the football is more profitable. I’ve been romanced by a couple of months, where my racing profits have been excellent, into a belief that I can make that profit regularly. But P&Ls don’t lie ( unless you’re a Photoshop expert ), and a return to profits needs a return to the methodology and attitude I had when making them.

The cock-ups illustrated above come from an attitude of frustration and almost panic, needing to make profit at every opportunity. It just doesn’t work for me. And it’s surfaced more in the last six months. So the coming weeks will be about trying to find the mindset I’ve had on the past. As I’ve commented previously, I also need to spend some time researching tennis form. Until recently, I followed all results on a daily basis, and I need that base of knowledge to make tennis profits.

I’ll take this opportunity to start the ‘second half’ of 2010. Let’s put the first half down as ‘disappointing, better expected in the second period’. Although I think England were in the same position last weekend.