The first few evenings of the U.S. Open have been dominated by a series of strong favourites with prohibitive odds winning convincingly. I’ve been irritated by a seeming lack of available value – I backed Nadal pre-match at 1.06, but the same odds on Gilles Simon? No thanks. I suppose value is irrelevant if the pick wins, but 1.0.. bets generally tie up too much of my bank to make them worthwhile. Tonight saw the first big casualties in the women’s draw – Jankovic and Dementieva ( I’m dismissing Ivanovic, she’s in shocking form at the moment ). I haven’t seen reports on the matches, but they were both slightly unlucky to be drawn against a couple of in-form and motivated young players in Yaroslava Shvedova and Melanie Oudin ( a good pick in Scott’s preview ). I did spot odds available on Shvedova of 1.46 at match point on her own serve – cracking value for those with a stronger stomach and bank balance than me.
I was pleased to escape with a £2.00 loss following a back of Sabine Lisicki, I’m not sure how she managed to lose to the limited Anastasia Rodionova, but I’m pleased I kept calm and pulled out a few trading techniques to recover my initial £105.
Wins for a couple of my favourites earlier – Sorana Cirstea and Yanina Wickmayer. Fortunately I backed pre-game and couldn’t follow in-play – neither match was straightforward so I’d probably have ended up all-red if I had been following.
If there are any money-buyers out there tonight, Miss Sharapova will definitely win in the evening session game, but at 1.03, I’ll be safely switched off.
"I suppose value is irrelevant if the pick wins, but 1.0.. bets generally tie up too much of my bank to make them worthwhile."
ReplyDeleteNo, value is not irrelevant at all. 1.0x bets do not always win. If you are not getting value, then you will lose in the long run. Have you not learned ANYthing from my advice over the years!
Yeah, don't bet on 'em! But it's still frustrating when you spot a selection, mentally prepare yourself to go in at 1.11 or so, and then find you're being offered 1.04. I have no doubt you are right, it's just that the US Open first round went pretty much in line with the pre-match odds. There have been plenty of opportunities for the flip-flop traders in play, but not too much for my 'pick a winner, green up if you can' preferred bets.
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