Variety

I’ve read on a few blogs recently how guys are expanding their range of sports beyond their areas of expertise, often simply because of the daily betting opportunities available – I’ve done the same with my toe-dipping into horse racing. My own experiences suggest caution, due to the differences in how each sport operates in terms of markets.

Occasionally, when I am away from home at the weekend, I will have a look through the Saturday three o’clock fixtures, and have a small punt on a few matches, usually around six or seven. It’s probably not that surprising that the outcome is often a profit hovering around zero. However, I generally only bet on football matches when I’m in a situation to trade out as events unfold. I’m regularly cautious, preferring an early all-green, but I’ve also learnt to give myself cover positions which limit the size of any all-red positions I take. I’m sure many football punters do likewise. I pick a starting point based on what I think is likely to be the outcome of the game, and then with each goal scored ( or red card shown ), I re-evaluate my trade and sometimes switch my liabilities based on the current situation. It seems to be a profitable approach.

I have found that using a similar approach in tennis can put you in a heap of trouble. Without having completed a detailed trawl of my betting records, I can confidently say that if I had always held my initial back in place to the completion of matches, I would be considerably better off than I have been when trading my positions. As I noted recently, no sport is more likely to turn an initial £20 bet into a £50 loss. The problem – decent players tend to be able to get themselves out of a hole. But in three set matches, it takes nerve to hold your position when the first set goes against your selection. I have commented regularly on tennis trading ( and why I’m not very good at it! ), and I believe that for someone with a pre-race trading background, tennis could be a very profitable area. The profit should be made in anticipating what may happen to odds throughout the match, rather than the eventual outcome. Often the initial back may be on a player you expect to lose. That’s a tough mental swing from picking winners, but reasonably straightforward if you are a trader by instinct. But like anything, a new area takes time to learn. Take care.


I had an early finish to work yesterday, and was home in time to have a look at the 4.10 at Southwell. The favourite, Rebel Rebellion, was priced up at 1.15. On the Racing Post website, trainer Charlie Mann was quoted thus ‘There are no dangers to this horse. He’s the best bumper horse we’ve ever had and all being well he’ll be going to Cheltenham’. Unsurprisingly, he romped home. But I couldn’t bring myself to put money on at that price, even with that ringing endorsement from the trainer, and he knows considerably more than I do. I suppose you have to keep in mind that one in seven of these mega-jollies will fall over. And it’s bound to be the one I’ve lumped on. Many will stay completely away from this sort of price, but I’ll happily take one on in football matches if I think there’s value. But I’m still a novice (early promise, may need blinkers) at racing, so I’ll keep away for the moment.