The Grasscourt Month

As we approach Wimbledon, I’ve been trying to sort through the last fortnight’s warm-up tournaments for any clues. The most valid of these events are those at Queen’s Club ( Men ) and Eastbourne ( Women ).

Andy Murray just confirmed at Queen’s what we’ve all worked out over the last couple of years – he is a world class player who simply has to win a grand slam to be seen as Britain’s finest ever. The three main Americans – Roddick, Blake and Fish – will all be competitive , as will Karlovic. My eye was also drawn to a man with grass court pedigree – Nicholas Mahut – who got a couple a wins under his belt before losing to Karlovic. Whilst everyone has Federer pencilled in for the semis, his quarter does include some real dangers on grass – Tsonga, Mahut, Karlovic, Soderling and Kohlschreiber. Finally, the woeful display of Eduardo Schwank suggests Wawrinka might be worth backing on Tuesday, even at 1.07.

The Eastbourne men’s tournament brought forward a couple of names seen regularly at Wimbledon – Dmitri Tursunov ( the winner ) and Janko Tipsarevic ( got a couple of games under his belt ), but little that will worry the higher seeds. Frank Dancevic made the final after coming through qualifying, so may be worth opposing in his Wimbledon opener due to likely tiredness.

Halle proved little, apart from that Tommy Haas, who could have wrecked his season by the manner of his defeat to Federer in Paris, bounced back superbly to win the title, and that grass may bring a halt to Fernando Verdasco’s charge up the rankings.

s’Hertogenbosch was just a poor tournament. It ended with a final between two limited bangers – Benny Becker beating the local, Raemon Sluiter (ranked 866 after missing a year), but will no doubt be remembered more for the dodgy betting patterns in the Hernandez / Koellerer ‘contest’. I feel a little sorry for Oscar Hernandez. His name becomes associated with match-fixing, but he can only play what’s put in front of him. How Ferrer managed to lose to Ivan Navarro ( spanish translation of Navarro – ‘journeyman’ ) is beyond me – lost £20 on that. Another couple of names worth opposing at SW19 stood out – Florent Serra and Daniel Gimeno-Traver.

The women’s event at Eastbourne saw early carnage amongst the seeds, leaving Caroline Wozniaki to continue her rise towards the top of the game, after an impressive run defeating a host of competitive players through the tournament – Kleybanova, Stosur, Makarova and Wosniak – although she struggled to see off Razzano in the final and seemed to be vulnerable when leading. The Serbians, Jankovic and Ivanovic, are still struggling for form, so it’s a little tough at the moment to look past the Williams sisters and Safina for Wimbledon (not that I’d completely discount Sharapova).

The other tournaments at Edgbaston and s’Hertogenbosch saw wins for two ladies capable of causing problems to higher ranked players on grass – Magdelena Rybarikova and Tamarine Tanasugarn. The finalist in Holland, Yanina Wickmayer, reached the final at Edgbaston last year and is also obviously comfortable on this surface. Three others made an impression – Aleksandria Wozniak, Francesca Schiavone and Melinda Czink. Sadly, Wozniak and Schiavone meet in the first round, but I’ll certainly be on Melinda Czink to take out Mauresmo in her opener at 3.0+.

Wimbledon will be frustrating for me, missing most of each day due to work, but I’ll have a look for a few to back with enough confidence to leave open. I may even post my selections – that’ll blow my 100% tipping record on the blog!

A Quiet Return

Back on the laptop after my break, but struggled to find much of interest, with only the remnants of the tennis fixture list and one U21 game available by the time I arrived home this evening. I backed South Africa in the 20/20 at 1.1 to pick up a few quid, but then threw away my profit experimenting with a couple of horse racing lays. I’m not exactly back in the zone yet!

I’m gutted I didn’t back Rocket Rob in the 9.00 at Yarmouth, though I did lay The Scorching Wind, but then my next lay (Valbuena) won in the 9.15 at Newton Abbot. I may as well have sent a tenner to charity. I’ll try to arrive home earlier tomorrow and take things a little more seriously.

I’ll admit to being poor at record-keeping. I tend to have an idea in my head of what is working for me, and then review my P&L on a weekly or monthly basis to confirm whether my ideas match reality. The time spent this evening checking my current position turned up a major surprise. Since switching to ‘small-stakes’ part-time betting in March, I have placed 32 bets on cricket, and have a 32-0 record! I’ve made more on cricket than soccer. HTF did that happen?
Cricket has been a disaster for me over the past few years. So what’s changed? A lot of my early bets were done when chasing losses – I think the 2 team win or lose scenario of the sport made it an easy area to throw money at when in the ‘panic recovery mode’ most inexperienced gamblers go through on a regular basis. My results also mirrored the usual results of a panic recovery mentality.

My recent attempts have tended to be peripheral to my main soccer and tennis trades, but done when opportunities present themselves – my old ‘wait for the opportunities to come to you’ mantra. Most are small wagers where a loss would just result in a shrug of the shoulders, and the results show a bizarre change of fortune. I’m happy to let it remain peripheral for the time being.

During the drive up the A34 and M40 yesterday, I listened to the England v West Indies game on 5 live. I thought Paul Collingwood was very reserved in his analysis of the game, suggesting that the better side won. The overall impression I gained was that the Duckworth-Lewis system doesn’t seem to work well in such short contests. The West Indians were struggling badly during their innings, then hit two sixes in successive balls, and the remainder of the target was a cake-walk. For a couple of hits to make such a difference seems wrong. If 80 from 9 overs is to be seen as equal to 161 in 20, I would have thought the chasing team should have only had 7 wickets available. Just a thought.

The Festival Season

To many, the festival season reaches a crescendo at Cheltenham in March, and ends at Punchestown in April.

My own (music) festival season is a six-part summer adventure starting tomorrow evening on the Isle of Wight, finishing in a park in Moseley, Birmingham in September, and taking in stops in Kinross (Scotland), Cambridge, Weston Park (Staffordshire) and Leeds.

Festival weekends and Christmas Day are the only times in the year when I’m guaranteed not to be checking out Betfair for opportunities. The laptop will be firmly locked away this evening and stay asleep until next Tuesday. I often don’t even check the sports news throughout the weekend. It’s a nice chance to clear my head of sport for a few days – it’s surprising how often I’m thinking about sport and betting, even when I’m away from the laptop.

I’ve been back on the festival scene for the last 5 or so years. I was a regular at the Reading Festival and a few other events during the eighties, but became a little tired of the crap facilities and being a human target for, er, fluid-filled plastic cider bottles throughout the weekend. I finally gave up after the infamously abysmal 1988 Reading Festival, headlined by Starship and Bonnie Tyler! I was enticed back by a top quality line-up put together for the 2004 V Festival, and found the 21st century festival to be a much nicer experience than I remembered from my teens and twenties.

The Isle of Wight festival is an enjoyable start to the summer. After a ferry from Southampton to East Cowes, we’ll be staying in the same Shanklin apartment as in previous years, and using the IOW’s excellent bus service to travel to the site in Newport. I’ve seen most of this year’s major acts before, but will be looking forward to hearing The Pixies and Stereophonics again, plus a music legend I’ve never seen before – Neil Young.

I’ll be back on Betfair next Tuesday, attempting to make something from June, which is currently hovering around the zero mark, mainly due to my opinions on tennis players getting in the way of a consistent staking plan.

If there are any believers out there, please pray for good weather in the coming days.

Oh, and I’ve stuck a good festival memory on my music player.

A Summer Day Out

Just back from a day out at the newly renamed ‘Aegon Classic’ WTA event at the Priory Club in Edgbaston, Birmingham. I’ve been for the past few years, it’s a friendly and informal tournament well worth the £15.00 ticket.

I left home this morning with low expectations – a dismal weather forecast and the worst order of play line-up I’ve had at Edgbaston – tomorrow’s a much stronger day. But managed to get (nearly) a full day’s tennis – rain stopped play around 5.00pm, and I saw a couple of decent games.

I placed four modest bets before I set out to give a little extra interest , backing Sania Mirza, Melinda Czink, Alla Kudryatseva and Maria-Elena Camerin. Two wins, two suspended whilst ahead. I also backed Steve Darcis and Nicholas Kiefer elsewhere (both won), so the tickets and the Pizza Hut tea on the way home were both paid for.

Started the day watching Sania Mirza play Tatiana Poutchek on the show court. Poor fayre, Poutchek is having a car crash of a season and had the expression of a loser throughout the contest. Mirza missed most of last season with injury and looked below her best, struggling with her serve and often tentative. I saw a little of Anne Keothavong in the following match, and I would be surprised if she doesn’t beat Mirza tomorrow ( check my ‘Camille Pin’ post before parting with any cash on my tips ).

I then spent a little time watching the outer courts. Random thoughts :–

· Carly Gullickson is a stone heavier than a professional full-time athlete should be,
· Melinda Czink looks a good player,
· Petra Cetkovska made very hard work of beating the barely-moderate Stephanie Foretz,
· Yulia Fedossova was beaten in 3 sets, but she certainly gives the ball a whack.

Finished the day watching Alla Kudryatseva play the British number 9, world-ranked 365 Naomi Broady. The Brit is 19 years of age, 6’2”, and was playing her first WTA tour match. And she gave Kudryatseva a fright, taking the first set, leading 5-3 in the second, and then 3-1 in the third. Sadly, the nerves took hold at the vital moments, and I’d expect the Russian to win from 5-7, 7-6, 5-4 when the match resumes tomorrow. Broady may be worth monitoring, she has a huge serve which could give some higher-ranked ladies a few problems.

I caught a glimpse of Miss Sharapova on the practice courts. She should win the tournament again – it’s a weaker line-up than in previous years, and I can only see Schiavone or Tanasugarn giving her a contest on her way to the final.

And the Pepperoni Feast was dead good.

A Day For Champions

The day must belong to Mr Federer. There now seems to be a general consensus amongst tennis pundits that Roger can be regarded as the finest tennis player of all time. Much attention has been concentrated on him becoming the sixth man to win all four grand slams. I would suggest that his total of fourteen slams in all may be a greater achievement when looked back upon in future decades.

I was ready to write an obituary marking the end of Federer's greatness during his match against Tommy Haas earlier in the week. One of the effects of such dominance in a sport is that opponents are intimidated by reputation, and underperform when pitted against the top player. I was convinced that Haas, having played Federer nine times, and lost on the previous seven occasions, would not have the mental strength to overcome Federer. A loss for the Swiss master would therefore be evidence that the shroud of invincibility had finally been torn away. It was a close call, but six days later his reputation is further enhanced and Wimbledon may give an opportunity for slam number fifteen.

There are mutterings regarding the condition of Rafa's knees at present, and he will have to come into Wimbledon without a warm-up event after pulling out of Queen's. I'm sure that there is further greatness to come from Nadal, but I believe that those knee problems will ensure that he never endangers Roger's 14 slam total.

On a day where the 'Greatest Of All Time' label is being discussed, it seems fitting that the day ended with victories for two probable candidates for such a title, and certainly two men with the ability to intimidate by reputation alone - Tiger Woods and Phil Taylor.

Three Words

Or, er, maybe four -

England.
Del Potro.
Gonzalez.

Guess where my money was today?

My Gonzalez money had long gone by the time I arrived home - no complaints, I knew the rules when I had a punt. I'm actually glad I wasn't able to play in-running, I'd probably have been on the red side of the trading. But felt a bit aggrieved when the odds went away from me on the other two matches. Went all red on both - three bets, three reds, week in tatters.

Oh well, it was never going to be a great week. Positive note - I feel no urge to chase a recovery.

Time to plod on regardless.

It's Oh So Quiet

..…. for a part-time Betfair player with no interest in horse racing, anyway. The second week of a grand slam is about as quiet a time for tennis betting as we get during the 10 month season.

I’m having to find new things to do with my evenings –
· Talk to my wife.
· Venture outside into the sunlight.
· Explore the 8000 channels available on Freeview. You can find an episode of CSI somewhere on there at any hour of the day, I believe.

The few opportunities I’ve come across this week have been reasonably successful. I think that because my profit expectations are low, there is no pressure to chase bets. I’ve only had one red trade so far this week. I got sucked into a lay of the Argentinians in tonight’s Toulon tournament game after reading a blog explaining why the Dutch youngsters were a far superior side. Argentina won 4-0.

My 100% record on Tennis tips was maintained (just) by Federer on Monday. No more tips this week!

In the men’s event, the odds have Federer around 1.8, and his three adversaries all in the 6.6 – 7.2 range. Not sure the 2009-model Federer is particularly good value at that. I think it’s a toss of a coin. Recent slam history suggests that Murray’s conquerer goes on to some success. So, if you twisted my arm, Gonzalez at 6.4 may be the value. That’s not a tip.

The women’s final should be between Kuznetsova and Safina. The winner? Ha, this is the WTA, anything could happen. Just lay once either hits 1.05!