Storm!

The NRL season finished this morning in Sydney, with a 23-16 win for the favourites, Melbourne Storm, over the Parramatta Eels in the Grand Final at ANZ Stadium.

Despite originating from the heartland of British Rugby League ( born in Leeds, and once lived just five miles from three club stadiums – Castleford, Featherstone, Wakefield ) I have never had any great interest in the game, being a lifetime football fan. But I have had good recent results following this season’s NRL action, and had another small win on the Grand final today. My P&L for the last three months shows 20 transactions, with 19 wins and one scratch. I’d be ecstatic if I could transfer that hit rate onto Football or Tennis.

Why the success? It’s certainly not down to research. I simply check the NRL ladder and recent results, before watching matches develop (on a scoreboard!) and backing in-play at an appropriate moment. I have only two answers :-

· The better teams generally hold on to leads ( as happened this morning, despite a few scares ).
· I am betting in the morning.

As many who trade on Betfair as a hobby will know, you are often in situations where time on the computer has followed a day’s work, and mental fatigue becomes an important factor. I’m sure I’m not alone in having my performance ( and P&L ) deteriorate at the end of a Betfair session, particularly during the evening. Whilst the successful full-time traders will be in optimum mental state for their allocated working hours, the part-timer has to find whatever time is available, and often that may be when the brain is functioning at well below it’s best.

It seems to me that my NRL bets were done with a positive and decisive outlook, and that my confidence was rewarded with profit. I spend plenty of time in the evenings scratching bets and taking small reds on other sports as my confidence evaporates at the first sign of a turnaround in a match. Is a sharp mind also a brave mind?

Maybe I should move to Canada. Then I could follow Saturday’s European footy in the morning.