Falling Down

Further to my recent post regarding Kyle Lafferty's 'simulation', I remembered another classic dive, which I've located after a little searching.

This time it's a manager! The gentleman is one Norbert Meier, then coach of Duisburg, during a Bundesliga game against Koln in 2005. This incident got him the sack, though he's currently back in business as coach of Fortuna Dusseldorf and has brought them up two levels to the second tier Bundesliga 2.

The Pillory

'The pillory was a device made of a wooden or metal framework erected on a post, with holes for securing the head and hands, formerly used for punishment by public humiliation and often further physical abuse.'

'The pillory consisted of hinged wooden boards that formed holes through which the head and/or various limbs were inserted; then the boards were locked together to secure the captive. Pillories were set up to hold petty criminals in marketplaces, crossroads, and other public places.'

'As part of the punishment, crowds would throw garbage and other objects at the captive pilloried offender. With hands trapped, he or she could not avoid thrown objects—either mostly harmless items like rotten food, or injurious ones such as heavy stones, where blinding, permanent maiming, or death could be the consequence. Sometimes a criminal's ears would be nailed to the pillory so that any movement of the head to avoid thrown objects would cause further injury.'

This seems a suitable punishment for behavior like this from Rangers' Kyle Lafferty during Saturday's match against Aberdeen. Pathetic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/scotland/8054773.stm

All Hail The EPL

That’ll be the English Premier League then. Or the Barclay’s Premier League as it is officially known.

As we approach the season’s finale, it’s worth appreciating what a great spectacle we’ve become used to watching each week in this country. Life (and sport) tends to move in waves, and it may well be that we’re currently in a golden age of English football. We have three (maybe four?) of the best teams in world football in our midst.

But what makes the Premier League different to it’s Spanish, Italian and German counterparts is the teams below the ‘Big 4’. On a weekly basis, we see competitive and skilled teams put on contests worthy of filling stadiums. And the teams ( Stoke, Bolton etc ) who don’t have the finances to compete on player quality have developed an industrious work ethic that ensure they remain worthy adversaries.

From a gambling perspective, the major up side of the Premier League is the knowledge that in every match, there will be two squads giving maximum effort. Every contest is fair, the refs aren’t as bad as managers would have us believe, and there are vociferous crowds to ensure players maintain their commitment throughout. There is obviously also enough liquidity to satisfy whatever stakes you wish to play with. The down side – there are few anomalies in odds, so those intent on finding easy value may find better markets elsewhere.

For years I avoided bets on Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea - too obvious, better value elsewhere etc. Now I'm a regular backer of all three - it doesn't matter about value if they keep winning.

Unfortunately, my own teams won’t be seeing any Premiership action for a while yet.

Deja Vu

A highly anticipated night of football, with two British heavyweights clashing in the premier european competition. A full house in the stadium, and millions watching on ITV. The away team bring a one goal lead into the second leg clash, but the home team's players and fans expect a better performance than in the first leg. The pundits are undecided - it may be a classic contest.

The game kicks off with an electric atmosphere around the ground. But quickly, the home fans' anticipation is replaced by a subdued sigh - the blue-shirted away team score! The home side now need 3 goals to win, a huge task for a team whose season's form has been below their best.

The hosts press forward. The crowd try to raise the temperature in support of their side. And then, in an instant, the dream is gone.

The away side's star striker makes it 0-2 on the night, and whilst there is plenty of time on the clock, the tie is effectively dead. The away side grow in confidence and the match turns into a stroll, the home players losing a yard of pace as adrenalin levels evaporate. By the time the home side's continental striker scores, it is merely a consolation, and many fans miss the goal as they head home ahead of the traffic.

The game?

November 1992. European Cup 2nd Round, 2nd Leg. Leeds United 1 (Cantona) Rangers 2 (Hateley, McCoist).

Value

A follow up post to my comments regarding Leeds' chances come the annual play-off lottery. I'm sure you can guess the amount of ribbing I have taken since the debacle at the end of the Ridsdale era at Elland Road.

So it was nice of a work colleague to point out that Jermaine Beckford's transfer fee when signed from Wealdstone ( £45,000 ) equated to 8 days wages for Seth Johnson during his 4 year, 50 game Leeds career. Spot the value.
I hold no grudges to Johnson, who suffered unfortunate injury woes during his Leeds career, and his refusal to tear up his own contract when Leeds were in the financial mire was probably due to a realisation that his career was heading towards an end due to injury.

But Johnson's is just one name of many that Leeds fans hear with a shudder. If anyone has a great book inside them, but is struggling to find a subject matter, may I suggest that the Leeds United story, from Peter Ridsdale's 'Living The Dream' period through to Ken Bates' under-the-table re-purchase of the club, awaits it's definitive history.

One Down, One To Go

Like many people, my footballing allegiances come from, firstly, the place of my birth, and latterly, my recent residence. The fortunes of both teams has meant I have rarely announced these allegiances over the past couple of years. But with something to celebrate today, I can confess ( it is Sunday ) to being a supporter of both Burton Albion and Leeds United.

Today belongs to Burton. They came into their final match with the worst form in the division ( check out Cassini's preview ), and as many feared, they went down to yet another defeat at Torquay, despite taking an early lead. However, as often happens at this time of year, a result elsewhere ( Cambridge ) meant the outcome became irrelevant. The last 10 minutes of the game was less than eventful, with both sides happy to hold the result.

So league football next season in a nice shiny new stadium worthy of Division 2. Sadly, the major element of the club's recent success - one Nigel Clough - has moved on, and the dip in form can be attributed directly to his departure. At least there are now 3 months to forget the recent form and prepare for the next challenge. Dagenham & Redbridge, here we come.

As for Leeds, all fingers are crossed that the division's best player, Jermaine Beckford, can stay fit and card-free for 4 more games. He really is the key to success or failure.

A High Profile Return

Today’s action at Molineux gives me a rare opportunity to mix Soccer and Housebuilding.

Wolves’ home win against QPR confirmed their promotion back to the Premier League after 5 seasons, and eighteen months after the club was purchased by Steve Morgan OBE from Sir Jack Hayward for the sum of £10.00. The nominal sum came with a condition that £30 million would be invested in the club.

The Liverpool born Morgan is the founder of one of Britain’s largest housebuilders, Redrow, which he started at the age of 21 with a £5,000 loan from his father. He spent 26 years building the company into a FTSE 250 company, before stepping down in 2000.

He was again in the media spotlight shortly after he left Redrow, when his divorce settlement with his first wife, Pamela, put her on the UK ‘Rich List’ with a sum changing hands of circa £100 million.

During 2004, he made a highly public bid to purchase Liverpool F.C. for £73 million. However, the ongoing bad blood between himself and the then Chairman of Liverpool, David Moores, ensured that Moores preferred to sell to the Tom Hicks / George Gillett partnership. Presumably, many fans of the club would now wish that Morgan had succeeded in his bid.

He re-appeared to purchase Wolves in 2007, and in recent times has controlled his development company, Bridgemere Group, plus holding ownership of the upmarket Cheshire hotel, Carden Park.

2009 has brought a return to the spotlight for Morgan. In addition to Wolves success, he has taken the opportunities brought about by falling share prices in the housebuilding sector to take back control of Redrow in a boardroom coup, becoming Executive Chairman as of 1st July. From a football perspective, the only ‘fly in the ointment’ may be rumours that Morgan would like to return the PLC Redrow to private ownership, and that the newly increased value of Wolves could be used to raise finance for a full takeover of Redrow.

Whatever the outcome, Mr Morgan is back in the big-time.

Not The Best, But In The Top One...

Had a night away from the laptop yesterday, and took Mrs Builder to the cinema in Burton to see 'The Damned United'.

I clearly remember Brian Clough's short spell at Leeds United, being an 8 year old soccer-mad kid and Leeds fan living in the city. I also remember the hostility awarded to Clough by the people of the city, fans or otherwise.

The film sensibly avoids being a film about football. It concentrates on the relationships between Clough and three others - his friend and number two Peter Taylor, his rival Don Revie, and his Derby Chairman Sam Longson. Whilst the film's biggest weakness is the shallowness of the secondary characters - Johnny Giles is played by an actor who thinks he's playing Vinny Jones - it has two main strengths. Firstly, Taylor, Revie and Longson ( Timothy Spall, Colm Meaney and Jim Broadbent ) are excellent in their roles.

And secondly ( and the reason you should see this movie ), Michael Sheen as Brian Clough makes the film. Forget about the football, Sheen plays Clough superbly. I believe the book from which the film is adapted is a bit of a hatchet job, but Sheen makes him a likeable if complicated man, and you come away from the film with admiration for Clough and similar admiration for Sheen.

And watching in a Burton cinema, you also get a sharp intake of breath when, during an argument with Taylor, Clough barks 'without me, you'd still be at Burton Albion'!

Wanted - Greek Footy Insider

Whilst browsing the Monday football fixtures late last night, I came across a standout set of odds. For the second time this month, the odds didn't stack up to either the recent or whole-season form. In both cases, the home team was Ilisiakos, a team in the bottom three of the Greek second division, and a team with more losses than wins at home. Their opponents in both cases were in mid table with decent recent form. I'm not an odds valuer, but I'd normally expect to see around 2.2 : 3.2 : 3.2 in both games. Actually, Ilisiakos were trading at 1.16 and 1.20 respectively.

In both cases, I laid Ilisiakos ( I'm always the optimist ). In the first game, the home team were two up in 16 minutes. £10 down the drain. Last night, I laid again. Early this morning, I managed to trade out at 1.30 for a £3.00 profit. Once again, the home team scored early, then went 3-0 up before the away side scored twice in the last three minutes for a 3-2 finish.

I'd love to know what I'm missing here. It doesn't look like a 'Weymouth situation'. Maybe they're local rivals and the home teams always win, maybe you have to travel to the ground in a dodgy light plane and are in no fit state to play upon arrival. Obviously plenty of people did know to drive the odds. Any answers?

A zero day for me. I always keep an eye on the teen wild card entries in the secondary tennis tournaments. Today's newcomer at the WTA Ponte Vedra Beach event was an 'Evert Academy' pupil only days past her 14th birthday - Madison Keys. Recent youngsters have failed to match experienced pro's on their baptisms, so I backed Kudryavtseva, despite her frankly crap season to date. Typically, Miss Keys overturned my thought process. Bah. The rest of the evening was then a recovery exercise, with objective achieved near the end of the 7.45 soccer kickoffs, at which point I called it a day.

If Madison Keys wins a Grand Slam, I told you first. Cheques to be sent to Rob's House, Lichfield.

Ouch.

I'll start with the positives of this evening. I bet in a calm and consistent manner, I thought through the 'what if' scenarios of each trade, and I didn't over-bet or chase.

Sadly, one error cost me dear, resulting in a (£96) day and putting me £78 behind my target total after 27 days of my £2k challenge.

The error - 'money-buying', a past failing that I have learnt to be very cautious about entertaining. But a 1.01 at 88minutes on 'under 3.5 goals' in a meaningless friendly between Norway and Finland ( at 1-1 ) looked an easy way to start my evening. So on went £158 to win £1.50!

I use Bet365 as my match-time guide. I glanced at the 1-1 score at 91 minutes 10 seconds. No problems. I switched to browse my Betfair screen, and what seemed moments later I glanced back - 92 minutes 50 seconds, 2-2! To rub it in, Norway scored again to win 3-2. At least I was spared that horrible stomach-tightening wait when one goal is scored, and you're left to scramble for whatever recovery you can make. It was a quick, painless death!

Interesting analysis of the £315 profit gained so far in my challenge - £313 is from tennis! I generally become frustrated when reviewing my P&L's. There has never been any consistency to my results which would guide me to change my sport focus or strategies. I can go for weeks finding tennis impossible to profit from, and then other times when I pick off trades effortlessly.

Write a hundred times as punishment - 'No more 1.01's'

The Wrong Game

One of the most frustrating elements of betting is that, despite trying to learn from mistakes, and despite analysing your shortcomings and errors, there always seems to be a new way to cock-up just around the corner.

Alistair at 'Betyourlife.blogspot.com' often chastises himself for his mental failings, and his latest post revolves around the ease with which he can lose focus.

My own evening began with a classic cock-up, and a first-time error to boot, caused by the fact that I was never 'in focus' to begin with.

Whilst driving home from work, I was aware of UEFA Cup 2nd leg games that were underway in Eastern Europe. Upon arrival at home, I immediately turned on my laptop to look for betting opportunities. This is a recipe for cock-up opportunities.

The matches underway were the all-Ukrainian clash at Kharkiv, the third Ukrainian participant, Shakhtar to home to CSKA Moscow, and the Zenit/Udinese game. I opened up Soccerway.com, my usual footy stats link, to check the 1st leg scores. Kharkiv were 3-2 up with 10 minutes to go, and I was interested in the overall score situation. I noted that CSKA Moscow won their first leg 1-0, and in my head saw a situation where CSKA would just hold the position for the last 10 minutes for an 'away-goals' win. Er, you may have spotted that CSKA weren't playing Kharkiv. I didn't.

So I placed a lay on CSKA. Then followed a comic-book 6 or 7 minutes where I counted down the minutes in the Kharkiv game on one screen, whilst also looking at the Betfair screen for the CSKA game. Only at that point did the slow rate of change in odds trigger the realisation that I had bet on the wrong game!

Fortunately, no goals had been scored in either match, and I escaped rapidly for a £3.00 gain.

Learning outcome - only place bets when you have prepared yourself for the session, and have an adequate level of concentration.

Curse Of The Red Card

A shocking day, from transaction number 1 onwards. The intention was to place a couple of bets early in the day, make my 4% target, and then close down.

Then our heroic referees took over. In a single day, SIX red cards directly affected my results, and I ended up with a ten hour stint trying to minimise the damage to my bank.

The day started with a lay of Murcia in their Spanish 2nd division clash at Hercules. Everything was going to plan until Murcia had a man sent off when 2-1 down. I decided that the game was up, so backed the Hercules home win. 10 minutes into the second half, Hercules made it 10 men per side, Murcia equalised, and I traded out for a loss.

I followed with a simple lay on the Portuguese clash between Olhanense and Portimonense ( sorry if you have a lisp ). Both teams concede little, so lay 'Any Unquoted'. An early red card for the away team, so again I traded out for a loss when a second goal was scored within the first half hour.

I then had a good couple of hours, and just as I was getting ahead on the day our Spanish referees took over. Again, I had layed the 'Any Unquoted' on the Espanyol/Mallorca game, but when a red card was given to the home team when already 1-2 down, and half an hour to play, settling for a loss again seemed the sensible option.

Simultaneously, an ill-advised bet on Malaga to beat Sevilla (£50 at 1.19) was partially offset before yet another red card did for me. Sevilla equalised within three minutes of the sending off, and another £24 washed away.

To complete the carnage, the PSG/Marseille looked ripe for an 'Any Unquoted' lay. At fifty three minutes and a 1-1 scoreline, no problems. One red card and two Marseille goals in ten minutes, and my by now frazzled head could only bail out once again.

The end result ( subject to me spotting anything interesting at Indian Wells ) is a (£63) day. These leaves my bank at £543, £34 ahead of the calculated £509 as at day 9 of my challenge. So I'm quite happy that I've survived today's calamities with my challenge intact.

Particularly having followed Alex at Bettingblog.org.uk, who was sunk yesterday by Liverpool at Old Trafford.

A Funny Old Game

In 'full-time' betting guise, my Saturday regime was generally to have a look around the day's odds from about 12.00, and then settle down for a long session at 2.00ish, only rising from my laptop around 7.00. I found this a difficult and tiring session, but an essential part of my week's profit generation.

In 'part-time' mode, I'm trying to increase the fun element of my betting, whilst maintaining a focus and discipline that will continue to improve my skills and strategy. My start to the day suggests I may have a little work to do on the focus element...

• Place a 'safe' lay - Man Utd v Liverpool score 'Any Unquoted'.
• Take a trip to Derby for a couple of hours shopping, in the knowledge I can always bail out if the score becomes uncomfortable.
• Realise I've left my I-Phone on charge at home, therefore losing my ability to offset my lay.
• Get back to my car at 2.40 just in time to hear the Five Live commentary describing Andrea Dossena's goal.
• Contemplate my £34 loss.

I suppose this would have been a £315 bet a couple of weeks ago, so maybe I'd have ended up with a similar loss anyway. But it makes me look a little 'Mickey Mouse' for someone who was supposed to be making a living via Betfair until a couple of weeks ago. I still think the original bet was valid - I doubt there are too many gamblers, full or part-time, who foresaw today's events at Old Trafford, but I would advise against the 'place bet, go shopping' technique.

Anyway, my new challenge is going ok, with 8 successive winning days, and today has been the first day I've been under my daily percentage target. I'm sure the challenge will become harder once my bank/target increases.