November - Smile, It's My Monthly P&L Graph

I did note in my October review my certainty that I would be profitable in November. So, task achieved? Well, yes, but not without my customary early-month losses, followed by the now familiar hard-earned recovery.

Looking at my P&L, there are similarities with October, in that most of the month was spent in the red. But there were two major differences to the previous month –

i. There was no last-day disaster, meaning that I ended November with a modest profit of £325.
ii. I spent less time beating myself up about losses.

A number of the month’s reverses were simply down to the unpredictability of sport. I think this helped me to move on and avoid chasing.

I went into negative territory on the 4th of the month, courtesy of a couple of horse racing lays going astray, and reached a low point mid-month following a period struggling with a limited bank, topped off with a bet on Vincent Van der Voort to beat Anastasia Dobromyslova in the Grand Slam Darts – I can always find a shock result to kick me when I’m down.

So that brought about a hardening of attitude, helped by my blog commitment noted above. Fifteen successive winning days later, I can look back on the month in a positive light.

The star sport for the month was horse racing. My method is straightforward – lays, no magic system, just review the information available to me on a race-by-race basis. I’m sure these things go in cycles, but I have certainly had a hot streak over the last few weeks. I generally stayed away from tennis, making just a small profit, but had a tough time with football – I still can’t believe some of the results that went against me. My sundry sports bets were less successful than of late – losses on darts, basketball and cricket.

Once again, when I’ve been in a hole, I’ve had the focus and determine to dig myself out. It would be nice to transfer that focus towards making profits rather than just recovery missions. I could do with a cash injection as Christmas approaches.

Developing Bad Habits

There are a multitude of betting blogs out there at the moment, including plenty of ‘start-ups’, with guys ( this does seem to be one of the last great male-only clubs! ) learning the game using small stakes with the hope of developing towards a goal of full-time trading. A recurring theme is the thought that once the basics are learnt and mistakes made using smallish sums, profit will quickly begin to flow. This is probably why many blogs disappear after a short time. It simply isn’t as easy as that!

Let’s do the basic maths on the workings of Betfair – the exchange take their cut, the rest of the wagered sums are shared between winners and losers. If there were huge amounts of people making a regular and substantial profit, there would probably need to be a similarly huge amount prepared to lose consistently and regularly – I’m not sure there are that many mugs out there.

So there are probably plenty of people in a similar situation to myself. Two years or so into my Betfair adventure, I’ve learnt plenty. My betting methods bear little resemblance to those I used at the start of the journey. I often make worthwhile profits, but the aim of consistent profit remains an arm-length away. I’ve gone past the beginner stage, and I’m sure I’m going through the period where many give up – the basic skills are in place, but I’m still liable to error ( with associated losses ). Only the determined will survive this stage. There remain plenty of disheartening days, and I rely on my undiminished belief that I will eventually succeed to keep me plodding on.

My current irritation is a couple of bad habits I seem to have developed.

· Becoming tentative after a day has started well.
· Rounding up

A P&L from a successful Tuesday illustrates my first issue. Having made a decent sum from a spare couple of hours following the afternoon’s racing, I spent an evening session concentrating on soccer. It seemed to me to be a fairly successful and satisfactory session, but a view of the P&L at the end of the evening surprised me – a largest win of £2.83! I’m unlikely to make much contribution towards the cost of Christmas with too many more sessions like that.


Maybe I’ve got a touch of OCD, but I do like to close a day with a nice rounded up sum, whether it be daily profit or bank balance. But I’m also prone to careless bets, simply to reach a rounded total. There is little more frustrating than throwing away a day’s profit on a risky punt around 11.00pm with the aim of winning £2.50!

I’m in this for the long haul. I’m sure a few less determined will fall by the wayside. Those who succeed will learn from their mistakes. I remain hopeful I’ll be one of them.

Leaving It Late

Trying not to be too smug, but for purely statistical interest I'd just like to point out that Max Gradel's 89th minute winner at Elland Road tonight was the fifth time this season that Leeds have scored the winning goal beyond the 86th minute.

I think it's since we started hiring in the same referees who usually officiate for Manchester United home games.....

Hobby? More Like Hard Work.

Six winning days since Monday, so surely I’m enjoying a nice easy pastime which keeps me out of the pub? Not exactly.

Bets this week included :

· Vincent Van der Voort to beat Anastasia Dobromyslova in the Grand Slam of Darts ( she’s only a girl! ).
· Phil Taylor to beat Van der Voort on the following evening.
· A lay of Hull with the score at 0-2 to West Ham in today’s Premiership game ( taken all red just before a Hull sending off at 3-2 ).
· A bet on the German 2nd division leaders Armenia Bielefield ( unbeaten in nine ) to avoid defeat at home to the strugglers 1860 Munich ( three successive defeats ).

You can guess the rest.

So how do you recover from chucking chunks of your bank down the drain? Simply by putting the hours in. I suppose I’ve been fortunate that there have been a couple of evening race meetings to supplement the sparse football fare on offer this week, and I’ve also stolen a few daytime hours for some horse racing lays – a benefit of self-employment. And now I feel knackered.

So please dear Lord ( I must be desperate, I’m an atheist ), can I have a nice easy Sunday with no further cock-ups to give me a profitable week that can be consigned to history and remembered only for the final P&L.

World Gone Mad. Part 73

Let’s start with the simple statement – I feel sorry for Ireland, losing just one step away from the World Cup finals is hard to swallow, and any debatable refereeing decision only makes things worse.

However, today’s huge over-reaction leaves me shaking my head. Yes, it was a hand ball. But there are probably five decisions as bad as this each weekend in the football league. I listened to Liam Brady pleading for France to ‘do the right thing’ and have the game replayed. The FAI have now formally asked for a replay. Tosh.

Sadly, plenty of teams have felt cheated, and I can’t remember too many games being replayed. As Crystal Palace and Watford fans will know, recent times have seen goals given that never went near the line, and goals which were clearly fired into the net, yet disallowed. If every game with a dodgy decision was replayed, we’d have to abandon the June / July break and play for twelve months per year. I bet Terry Fenwick and Peter Reid are dusting off their old kits right now, ready for a rematch of the ‘Hand of God’ game – they might catch Maradona this time. Celtic must have a great case for being back in the Champions League, after Eduardo’s dive ( oh sorry, he was proved innocent. Ahem)

And Thierry Henry? Heard a couple of comments along the lines of ‘I used to respect him….. but now he’s just a cheat’. Sorry, but Henry could fall over in the penalty box as well as anyone during his Arsenal career. Last night, he handled a ball. It’s really a minor misdemeanour compared to the regular over-the-ball challenges and stray elbows that occur on a weekly basis, so why suddenly pillory Henry? Name me the player who would have owned up to the incident and asked the ref to disallow the goal? Thought so.

All last night has proved is that it’s tough to lose unluckily. We all have plenty of experience of that!

Go North!

Ok, I will then.

I'm away for the weekend in Durham, and it sounds like I'll have howling gails chasing me up the country this afternoon.

So no betting until Monday. I'm just leaving one open bet - a lay of Exeter at 7.0 away at Colchester. The home team have looked strong under Adie Boothroyd, and it's a long trip from Exeter.

Hope all have a profitable weekend.

Au Revoir....and Do svidaniya.

The end of the road for two of the ATP’s, er, characters – Fabrice Santoro and Marat Safin - who’s defeats in Paris bring retirement at the ages of 36 and 29 respectively.

Santoro could certainly be described as a journeyman, with a highest ranking of 17 over a twenty year career. But he has become better known as ‘The Magician’, due to his ability to cut ball-girls in half during changeovers in matches. Er, maybe I’ve got that wrong. The nickname came from Pete Sampras, and is more likely to be due to a playing style involving great variety and craft. In turn, this style was required to overcome his comparative lack of power, when opposed by bigger and heavier-hitting opponents. The Frenchman holds the record for grand slam appearances – 69 - and also won two grand slam doubles titles – at the 2003 and 2004 Australian Opens.

Trivia time – Santoro won his first Challenger title in Telford. Glamorous life, eh. And he remains one of the most famous people ever to be born on Tahiti.

Safin – where does one start. Massive talent, massive underachievement. He turned pro in 1997 and by 2000, at the age of twenty, he was world number one with seven ATP titles in the season, and became US Open champion by defeating Pete Sampras in the final at Flushing Meadow. After that, injuries and a baffling temperament saw him yo-yo up and down the rankings, but he never regained the heights of the 2000-2002 period, although a second grand slam was earned in Australia in 2005. Maybe Federer’s consistency and the emergence of Nadal hindered his progress, but his inconsistency was often head-scratching.

Personally, Safin became the first male name on my ‘avoid completely’ betting list. I also tended to keep away from Santoro – would he be overpowered, or bamboozle his opponent? But it’s sad to see the end of anyone on the ATP Tour who could be termed ‘charismatic’ – the sport is sadly lacking in such men.