100% Committed?

This, as I'm sure most readers will know, is Miss Ana Ivanovic, from a recent photoshoot for Sports Illustrated magazine. With a world ranking which has gone from 1 to 23 in just over a year, and a dismal start to the 2010 season, have we seen the best of Ms A ( in terms of tennis )?

Presumably S.I ( and plenty of other magazines ) will pay decent money for similar photoshoots. This seems like considerably easier work than spending six hours a day practising two-handed backhands. With Henin and Clijsters back on tour to up the level of competition markedly, it may be that at the age of 22, Ivanovic may head in the same direction as Anna Kournikova, with more calenders than trophies in the cabinet. Right at the top of any professional sport is a place for the determined, committed and seriously talented. Without all three of those factors in place, it becomes a slippery slope downhill.

With a regular batch of injury issues, including that serious shoulder problem, I'm guessing that Maria Sharapova ( currently ranked 16 ) may also never reach those heady heights again. It's a pity, but pro tennis is tough, and these girls have got millions in the bank and the opportunity to make millions more without having to swing a racquet.

So we need some new glamour in the sport. Kleybanova or Suarez Navarro anyone?

Variety

I’ve read on a few blogs recently how guys are expanding their range of sports beyond their areas of expertise, often simply because of the daily betting opportunities available – I’ve done the same with my toe-dipping into horse racing. My own experiences suggest caution, due to the differences in how each sport operates in terms of markets.

Occasionally, when I am away from home at the weekend, I will have a look through the Saturday three o’clock fixtures, and have a small punt on a few matches, usually around six or seven. It’s probably not that surprising that the outcome is often a profit hovering around zero. However, I generally only bet on football matches when I’m in a situation to trade out as events unfold. I’m regularly cautious, preferring an early all-green, but I’ve also learnt to give myself cover positions which limit the size of any all-red positions I take. I’m sure many football punters do likewise. I pick a starting point based on what I think is likely to be the outcome of the game, and then with each goal scored ( or red card shown ), I re-evaluate my trade and sometimes switch my liabilities based on the current situation. It seems to be a profitable approach.

I have found that using a similar approach in tennis can put you in a heap of trouble. Without having completed a detailed trawl of my betting records, I can confidently say that if I had always held my initial back in place to the completion of matches, I would be considerably better off than I have been when trading my positions. As I noted recently, no sport is more likely to turn an initial £20 bet into a £50 loss. The problem – decent players tend to be able to get themselves out of a hole. But in three set matches, it takes nerve to hold your position when the first set goes against your selection. I have commented regularly on tennis trading ( and why I’m not very good at it! ), and I believe that for someone with a pre-race trading background, tennis could be a very profitable area. The profit should be made in anticipating what may happen to odds throughout the match, rather than the eventual outcome. Often the initial back may be on a player you expect to lose. That’s a tough mental swing from picking winners, but reasonably straightforward if you are a trader by instinct. But like anything, a new area takes time to learn. Take care.


I had an early finish to work yesterday, and was home in time to have a look at the 4.10 at Southwell. The favourite, Rebel Rebellion, was priced up at 1.15. On the Racing Post website, trainer Charlie Mann was quoted thus ‘There are no dangers to this horse. He’s the best bumper horse we’ve ever had and all being well he’ll be going to Cheltenham’. Unsurprisingly, he romped home. But I couldn’t bring myself to put money on at that price, even with that ringing endorsement from the trainer, and he knows considerably more than I do. I suppose you have to keep in mind that one in seven of these mega-jollies will fall over. And it’s bound to be the one I’ve lumped on. Many will stay completely away from this sort of price, but I’ll happily take one on in football matches if I think there’s value. But I’m still a novice (early promise, may need blinkers) at racing, so I’ll keep away for the moment.

Being A Football Fan

It’s bloody stressful. I follow the fortunes of my local club, Burton Albion, and they’re in a tidy mid-table position, 20 points ahead of the relegation zone, just where a newly promoted club would wish to be. However, my main allegiance is with my hometown club, Leeds. Great, you may think, with a win over Manchester United under our belts in recent weeks. But the season is all about getting out of League One, and we’re reaching that point of the season where you keep an eye on not just your own team’s results, but of those teams around you in the league table.

I think the recent exposure in the FA Cup has made things worse for a naturally pessimistic fan. Everyone I talk to assumes we’re all but promoted, based on televised performances that won’t matter a toss at the end of May. But Leeds left Victoria Park, Hartlepool today with a single point, and would be pretty relieved to see both Norwich and Charlton fail to win. This is Leeds’ third season in League One, and they have begun the last two seasons as favourites for promotion. The main concern would be that the energy used in those titanic cup ties may take it’s toll on the squad, and a bad run could suddenly bring Norwich and Charlton level. Then it becomes a nail biting last couple of months of the season (again).

I held a view that the team’s key players – Snodgrass, Kilkenny, Kisnorbo, Beckford – should have been left out for the cup games. Simon Grayson has had plenty of plaudits for the cup performances in the last month. If Leeds aren’t promoted, he’ll be on the scrapheap. Let’s hope that the early season form can be reinstated now that the diversion is out of the way, and that his decision to play full-strength teams against United and Spurs doesn’t backfire.

As a gambler I’m naturally optimistic. I generally start each Betfair session expecting to win. As a footy fan, I spend all my time waiting for the wheels to fall off. Maybe it’s just from many years of yo-yo results and trauma. It isn’t that long ago I watched a Champions League semi-final at Elland Road!

The play-off system has improved football in this country. But it’s certainly put more fans in a position to have shredded nerves and fingernails from April onwards. So, if your team is in a tight spot, positive or negative, good luck. And it might be worth getting in a few packets of Kalms.

Laugh Or Cry?

A decent day. If you wish to know why I come away from it with a feeling of frustration, refer to the first paragraph of my last post.

January - Waste Of Time?

At the end of a month where many hours were spent in front of a laptop screen, I end with a P&L of +£79. I’d hate to work out my hourly rate, it’s probably not much over a quid per hour. But at least I’ll have learnt some worthwhile lessons? Er, no, not really.

My gains in the month generally came from my strengths – knowledge of sport, identification of value, research. My losses from my old shortcomings – inconsistent staking, chasing losses and lack of concentration. I’ll add a new shortcoming – lack of respect for my bank money. As a few bloggers have found, the problem with having a longish period without making progress is that it can lead to frustration – the ‘what’s the point?’ mentality – and when you’re controlling a bank only equal to a couple of day’s wages, it’s easy to just throw in a couple of bets using big chunks of that bank simply to relieve that frustration. Oh, and they often lose!

If I delve deeper, I can find a few positives to carry in to February. My losses were restricted to three short spells, and two of those were simply reckless. Whilst I will have to admit to chasing losses on both occasions, my mindset was less about loss recovery and, as I mentioned above, more of frustration at my carelessness. So most days of the month have been profitable and I have generally kept my concentration levels up. The obvious learning outcome – a long period of consistency can quickly be undone by a short period of brain-fade.

I was profitable with all sports except racing and snooker. I was particularly pleased with my tennis results, having deliberately avoided the overnight matches which made up the bulk of the month’s opportunities. I ended last season with a pretty negative attitude towards tennis betting, so I’m pleased with my start to the new year. My most profitable sport was football, a decent turnaround as I was in the red as at the 11th of the month. And snooker is definitely blacklisted – four bets, three losses.

The big hole in my P&L was horse racing. My initial impression was that racing was simply the sport that happened to be available for me to take my frustrations out upon. It was certainly where I targeted my loss-chasing and inconsistent staking. But having done a little analysis, I find that if I had laid to a fixed stake, I would still be in the red. Only by about half of my actual loss, but still a noteworthy sum. In addition to the inconsistent staking, it is likely that I am simply having too many bets. Many bloggers with considerably more expertise in the horse racing sphere than I seem to limit their trades to where they feel fully confident in the selection. I will look to reduce my quantity of bets, and hopefully I may see an improvement in hit rate.

There’s no doubt that much of what I’ve said in previous month-end posts still applies. I continue to be inconsistent, and I continue to perform at my best only when recovering from losing P&L positions. I know that future profits are simply reliant on consistency and concentration. Doesn’t sound that difficult, does it? Maybe I’m just a slow learner!

No Bet?

Two superb contests in store at the Australian Open this weekend. Whilst having a quick look at the odds it struck me that I, like many others, spend too much time analysing form and prices, trying to find an angle where it doesn’t exist. I’m sure the profitable punter is adept at realising that ‘no bet’ is often a sensible solution. If your convictions are not strong, move on. For me, ‘on the fence’ would be a fair description of my feelings towards the two finals. I’d like to see a Murray / Henin win, but that means opposing two of the most successful champions of all time.

Roger Federer is 1.65, to Murray’s 2.50. The major factor is probably Federer’s grand slam history, but for each argument in his favour, you can call an opposing claim. Federer has won slams – Murray probably wants the slam more. Murray has a good recent head-to-head record – Federer therefore has a revenge motive. Federer had the easier semi – Murray has had an extra day’s rest. I could go on….

The Serena / Justine odds currently sit at 1.92 / 2.06. That probably says it all. The outcome is all about Serena, who’s level of play and temperament fluctuates wildly. In her press conference she noted that a win would put her level with Billie-Jean King in slam titles. A good reason for 100% commitment then. She then followed up with ‘but I don’t really care about that’. No clues on offer there. She’s generally up for slam finals, but would you put your money on it?

Henin is much more predictable - talent/good temperament/graft - but hanging over her is the effort of reaching a final so soon after returning to the sport. Her form has been patchy through the week, but she’s mentally tougher than anyone. Whilst the men’s match will probably be a tight, high quality contest, the women’s match could be 6-1, 6-1. I just don’t know to which player.

I’ll stick to enjoying the sport, with a fiver each on Murray and Henin just as a supportive punt.

Repeating Patterns

Guess who laid ‘Any other score’ on the Villa / Blackburn game last night? Not my best ever pre-match analysis, although I noted that Alan Shearer’s thoughts were similar to my own on the BBC coverage. I managed to escape with an all-red £13, so no great harm done.

The repeating patterns I refer to are the manner in which my success or failure on particular sports seems to work in circles. My post ten days ago commented on a bad spell on football leaving me with a loss on the month, whilst my most successful sport had been horse racing. Since then, the racing has been horrible and, despite the Villa game, the football’s gone ok. Total impact on the month – football in profit, racing in the red, and an overall monthly P&L sat at a paltry +£86!

The ‘Robin Hood’ technique I’ve mentioned previously is a good example of how I seem to operate. A real problem for me is that I tend to lose confidence in a particular sport after a couple of bad results, and make subtle changes to my betting techniques, whether in staking or type of bet. During one week, my emphasis is on football. The next, racing. The next, tennis. And because I’m not consistent for a long period, I don’t give myself the chance to prove whether a particular staking plan or type of bet will be successful in the long term. Whilst I have learnt huge amounts in the last couple of years, I think the wide range of opportunities opened up to me has actually got in the way of my potential profitability. If I can ever bring myself to knuckle down and make a serious effort to turn my knowledge into profit, ‘consistency’ needs to be put right up there with ‘discipline’ in my betting mantra.

My recent betting has been pretty low key, not helped by my own lack of foresight. I did a spot of arbing last week, resulting in a fiver gain, with the side effect of moving £500 from my Betfair account into Bet365, leaving me with £150 in my Betfair account. Unfortunately, I only had £150 in the old bank account I use for deposits and withdrawals, so I unintentionally limited myself to a £300 bank which I then proceeded to blow over the weekend, courtesy of a few racing lays going astray and a petulant back of Ronnie O’Sullivan with my last £75 on Sunday night. So I left myself with a couple of free days before I could fund my Betfair bank.

The major impact of this was that I missed the Australian Open first round. I had not intended to get heavily involved in an overnight market anyway, and have limited my subsequent bets to a few £20 punts and a little morning betting. I’m in profit, so I’ll continue to take it easy. I got involved in the Montanes / Robert game this morning, and whilst I was always with Montanes, and came out on top, I was certainly aware of those thoughts of flip/flopping which the game brings, and that have given me so much heartache over the years. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that I’m not cut out for major in-play tennis trading – my odds-on lays generally storm straight to 1.01, and I’m instinctively an odds-on backer. But I’m good at finding winners, and if I can use in-play betting to compliment pre-match bets, I’m sure tennis will soon be back at the top of my agenda – it is my favourite sport. I’ve just got to avoid getting sucked into in-play shenanigans. There’s nothing more frustrating than ending up with a £200 loss on a bet that started with a £50 liability, and there’s no sport more likely to ensnare you than tennis.

I noted in a recent post about how I felt relaxed with my betting. I still do, despite the crap P&L. Tennis is the sport with most potential to increase my profits. But also the most potential to give me stress ( and losses ). I’ll keep the kid gloves on for the moment.