Standing Still

Last week’s ATP tournament winners were the Serbian Victor Troicki ( in a piss-poor line up in Moscow ) and Federer in Sweden. Whilst reviewing the results, I was aware of the lack of ‘breakthrough’ players who have made their mark this season. Only a few years ago, Nadal, Murray and Djokovic charged up the rankings to dispel the theory that Federer would be simply wiping up trophies for a decade. But recent times have shown little movement in the hierarchy. So I went on a mission to find ‘the next big thing’ from within the ATP rankings.

Starting with the top 50, a couple of the big movers in 2010 are injury related – David Nalbandian from 64 to 31 ( up 33 places ), and Mardy Fish ( up 37 places to 18 ). It’s also been a good year for Berdych, Baghdatis and Melzer. The former, along with Robin Soderling, can now be seen as a serious grand-slam threat. The Cypriot and Austrian have been on the circuit for a long time, and may be viewed as dangers to the top players rather than potential champions ( although I’d have said that about Francesca Schiavone a year ago ).

There are a few experienced pro’s who have moved up the rankings without being likely to make too much further progress – Llodra (32), Lu (34), Chela (41) and Niemenen (44) – and a couple who’ve been in the ‘promising’ camp for a couple of years and are now putting it together more consistently – Ernests Gulbis ( up 66 places to 24 ) and John Isner ( up 19 to 15 ). Both have an important 12 months ahead of them - if they are to be the breakthrough players, now is the time.

It’s in the lower reaches of the 50 that the most interesting candidates appear. Three players have really pushed on this year, and all are in the 21 to 23 age group, so should have potential for further improvement. Could the next big thing be one of the following -Andrey Golubev of Kazahkstan ( up 97 to 36 ), Thiemo de Bakker of Holland (up 47 to 49 ), or the Ukranian Alexandr Dolgopolov ( up 82 to 49 )? All are worth keeping an eye on. Outside of the above names, it’s pretty static.

It’s no more satisfying to trawl through numbers 50 to 100 in the rankings. There are few who seem likely to make a quick jump towards the top twenty. There are a couple of experienced pro’s who could ‘do an Ivanisovic’ and have an impact in a major if things fell their way – Fernando Gonzalez ( 61) and Ivo Karlovic (71). The rest are mainly journeymen, clay-court specialists or underachievers. It may be worth keeping an eye on the 22 year-old Lucas Lacko (75), and 23 year-olds Daniel Brands and Leonardo Mayer shouldn’t have their careers written off yet. But there is little to excite.

Below that, there are a couple of former junior champions who’ve failed so far to make waves at senior level. The 19 year-old Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov must have a decent chance of making a breakthrough soon, whilst 21 year-old American Donald Young looks to have had plenty of chances and may have to be placed in the box marked ‘no thanks’. There may be someone lurking in the lower reaches of the rankings who will explode into the stratosphere – it’s happened before. But a quick view of places 101-200 throws up only a couple of names worth mentioning – Richard Berankis of Lithuania is a 20 year-old on an upward curve and Bollettieri Academy graduate Kei Nishikori of Japan has already made an impact, despite injury problems. There are a few names that have yet to come to my attention, so maybe I have a surprise in store in the coming months.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Rare Occurance

So to the latest in what is becoming a series of increasingly occasional blog updates.

Whilst I still have a regularly used laptop, more time seems to be spent on work matters of late rather than Betfair. I noticed last night whilst watching the Inter/Tottenham game, with laptop on lap, that I had seven windows open. Betfair, BBC Sport and five work-related sheets. Not the environment for concentrated betting. I was happy to end the evening with a £25 gain thanks to a lay of Spurs, although Mrs B’s input had ensured that I only viewed the first half, giving way to an hour of Lord Sugar’s latest motley crew of high-ego, low-common sense ‘high flyers’. The ‘Apprentice’ intro suggests that these contestants are some of Britain’s best young business talents. Not likely. The producers have simply found a batch of cocky sods who they know will make twats of themselves on national TV without any awareness of their own failings. It’s all about the ratings.

Anyway, back to Betfair business. My October so far has a similar feel to September ( disappointing ) rather than August (progressive ). This may also have influenced my reduced hours. There has always been a straight correlation between my enthusiasm for spending time on Betfair and my P&L position. I suppose this is better than the opposing correlation ( the road to ruin ). The £1,000 bank I felt comfortable with is being eroded by six weeks of small losses, and a cheeky withdrawal to cover some unforeseen expenses. So the benefits ( monetary and psychological ) of August’s successes have begun to slowly unravel.

I ditched my greyhound system, not because of it was proven to lose, but rather that it opened me up to the temptation to chase losses. Two moments of mental failure have cost me all of the profit made, and as I spent most of the first half of this year feeling utterly frustrated, any system which risks putting me back in that frame of mind is not worth continuing. The horse racing ‘system’ has developed into a way of spotting certain signals in the market, and looks like it is worth continuing with. Beyond that, my Betfair time is spent with the evening football.

My aims – well, just protect that bank. Small gains can soon add up to a worthwhile sum, without too much effort. Just as easily, those small profits can disappear in one frustrated chase. Nothing I haven’t written before, and probably will write again.

Keeping It Green

I'm sure all you guys out there are happy to see a little green.

Enjoy.

September - Stumbled

Back in the red after August’s successes, although my outgoing feeling is that I’ve been tripped up by events, rather than regressed in concentration or mood.

Two issues dominated my betting month. Firstly, my inability to find time to spend in front of the Betfair screen ( mentioned previously here ). Secondly, the first major month of the football season was tough. From reading a few blogs, I think I’m not alone in finding results going against me. As Talkbet pointed out here, September may be too early for the season’s form to settle down. I hope so.

With regard to the English Championship, before yesterday I was beginning to believe that it may have been early June before results settled down. It looked like a pinsticker league to me. QPR are in hot form, and I like the look of Burnley and Cardiff. The rest looked fairly evenly matched. Having sat through my own team’s embarrassing collapse at home to Preston during midweek, I had decided that the Championship was a no-go area for the coming weeks at least. Looking at yesterday’s results there seems to be more sense of form lines developing, but I still think it’s a league to be wary of.

Most successful sport of the month? Greyhound racing!! Whilst looking for ways to inflate my P&L within the limited evening hours available to me, I’ve been testing a couple of simple systems ( one horse racing, one greyhounds ) which rely on information from websites, cross referenced to the odds available approaching post-time. Nothing too clever, and staking to win a fiver or so each time. Both are currently profitable, but it’s way too early to determine their likely medium-term success. Both systems are odds-on based so could easily be wrecked by the inevitable losing run. And like all systems, they have little likelihood of long-term success ( IMO ) simply because the market corrects itself.

Any optimism I have moving forwards is based upon a belief that I can start to pick up steady profit from football. Unfortunately, this probably means plenty of evenings with the hard slog of trading correct score and result positions. Not my preferred punting method, but probably the safest way of accumulating profit. If I can eke out further profit from the racing and greyhounds, great. But my expectations are low. And Tennis? Off my radar at present as the tournaments head to the far east. With results like Nadal’s failure against Garcia-Lopez yesterday, that may not be a negative outcome for my P&L.

Top Man

I’ve never really taken to Jonathan Trott.

When Kevin Pieterson qualified as an English player, there was a sense of anticipation – a star to add to the Test lineup – as there had been a decade or so earlier with Graham Hick. But Trott, Cape Town born, slid into the Test side off the back of some decent county performances without creating a dent in public awareness. He’s subsequently become an effective part of the England line-up – stubborn, level-headed and tidy with an ability to compile big scores. Not too exciting then. Off the field, we’ve never really had much opportunity to find out if he had a personality.

But Mr Trott has risen hugely in my estimation. I know exactly how I’d have felt yesterday morning if I was an England player. And I’m sure it would have involved a wish to throttle someone from the Pakistan set-up. So top marks to Trott for having a whack at Wahab Riaz, and for showing an element of passion and aggression that we’ll need in spades this winter in Australia. Whilst I’m not condoning ‘Joey Barton’ style fisticuffs in most sporting situations, in this case I’m with Trott.

Missing in Action

Best laid plans........

So August was excellent, as my P&L headed upward and a calm (and profitable) betting routine took hold. The onset of the footy season could only improve matters. Well, theoretically.

The day after posting my last blog, I came across a couple of decent work opportunities. One of these involves Saturday work, but at an income level I can't afford to refuse. The major negative is that Mrs B, whilst happy to see additional income into her purse, is less than chuffed to see me then spend Sunday in front of the Betfair screen. So after last weekend's 'false start' on the footy betting, this weekend saw not one bet placed. I have no problem with limiting my trades to weekday evenings with a little weekend top-up, but I'm irritated that after months of struggling, the rhythm and routine I found last month has ground to a halt.

Whilst I dislike target setting, to see your P&L increase at a fairly steady rate on a daily basis is comforting. With my available hours limited, I think my preferred mindset moving forward should be to protect my bank balance, and let the P&L look after itself, for the moment.

An interesting post from Stephen Maher regarding whether successful Betfair trading is a good career choice. Most full-time traders have dropped out of their previous career, generally because they were unhappy in their role, and I'm sure appreciate the flexibility of their lifestyle, and not having to answer to anyone but themselves. I find self-employment has similar benefits. Stephen's issue is that he's never had a career. Personally, I would go back to college, finish my course and find work if at all possible. Even if that job isn't the 'big money, stress' type. In life, I think you need as many 'strings to your bow' as possible. Unforseen things happen, and a decent back-up plan is worth having. Five years ago, if I'd have been asked how I saw my coming years, I'd have been miles off in my prediction. Stephen has learnt the skills to be profitable on the exchanges and at the bookies. That's a useful tool to have. But I'd rather have it as one of a portfolio of skills in my pocket.

Poor Start

Having built up Saturday in my head as the notional start of a season of profitable footy, I was quickly brought down to earth with a bump. I suppose I should be grateful that I wasn’t involved in the games at Everton, Burnley or Barcelona, but I still managed to pick out a batch of games which didn’t go to plan. My major difficulty was that my strategies tend to involve scratching out early if things start to go against me, particularly on a Saturday when there is so much happening. And time after time, the first goal went the wrong way. Man City, Newcastle, Copenhagen, Moenchengladbach. All offset. The killer was my error of the day being punished – I left a position on the Newcastle / Blackpool game where I had a £50 risk if Blackpool scored a second goal, and I could have easily covered this for little outlay with five minutes to go. I didn’t, they scored.

The remainder of Saturday didn’t improve. I’d expect to have a few results go my way to counteract the losses, but nothing. I should have been profitable on the Fulham/Wolves game, having tipped up Wolves in my last post, but I didn’t back my judgement with cash. They scored first of course! As the evening wore on I realised I’d forgotten how difficult I’ve found Saturdays in recent seasons. The accumulation of negative moments leaves me open to chasing, particularly in the evening. Fortunately, a spell of decent results over the last few weeks has helped my attitude, so the laptop was turned off at the point where I felt vulnerable to the chase ( and left off on Sunday ). I will take forward the need to be a little more selective on Saturdays, and hope it was just one of those days.

Yesterday I watched the first episode of Alan Davies’ Teenage Revolution ( ‘taped’ from during the week ). I had read a review in the papers before watching the programme, and the reviewer thought the programme was boring – just Davies’ ramblings on his teenage years. However the reviewer was probably born sometime in the seventies. I was born on 2nd March 1966, Davies on 6th March 1966. So for me it was fascinating viewing. So many of his reminiscences matched my own memories. His first bedroom wall poster, as was mine, was Debbie Harry. Paul Weller was my idol, and his. Whilst there were plenty of differences ( his public school was hated, I quite enjoyed my comprehensive ), many of the experiences rang a bell. I particularly related to his description of the skill required to flick through albums in a record shop at high speed, and the fear of the skinhead gang from the rough side of town.

So that’s my Thursday evening viewing sorted for the next three weeks.

There’s a decent amount of European football on tonight, so I’ll hope to put my September P&L back onto an even keel.